In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 53 — also known as UFC Vegas 89 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Ribas (12-4-0) | Namajunas (12-6-0)
Ribas rebounded from a KO/TKO loss to Maycee Barber in June 2023, picking up a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Luana Pinheiro in mid-November. After 3 straight decisions, she has finished inside the distance in the past 2 outings.
Namajunas lost a split-decision championship bout at UFC 274 to Carla Esparza in May 2022, and she was unable to rebound in her return Sept. 2023 at UFC Paris against Manon Fiorot. In fact, Namajunas suffered a broken hand in that fight.
Ribas has a slight 1-inch reach advantage while posting a 4.92-to-3.68 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The Brazilian fighter is also a lot more accurate with those strikes, landing 52.80% to just 43.65% for “Thug” Namajunas.
Ribas holds a 1.99-to-1.49 takedown average, too, while posting a 0.80-to-0.55 submission average advantage, too.
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UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Ribas +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Namajunas -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)
UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
RIBAS (+165) is an attractive pick as the moderate underdog against Namajunas (-200), the former champ.
While Ribas has ended up with 3 losses in the past 6 fights, she holds some impressive advantages in all of the major categories. She lands more significant strikes, she is more accurate, and she does a good job on takedowns and submissions, too. That will go a long way to wowing the judges.
RIBAS ON POINTS (+450) for the chance to multiply up by 4½ times is quite an attractive play worth a roll of the dice.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (+130): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong value at plus-money.
Ribas hasn’t gone the distance in the past 2 fights, although the most recent bout with Pinheiro was just 67 seconds short of going all the way. Prior to the past bouts, she had gone the distance 3 times while needing the help of the judges to determine a winner in 5 of the past 9 outings.
For Namajunas, she has gone the distance in 3 straight bouts, and 4 of the past 5 outings.
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