In a 5-round heavyweight championship bout in the main event, Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic battle at UFC 309 Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on Hulu/ESPN+, while the prelims get started at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/FX/Hulu/ESPN+. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Records: Jones (27-1-0) | Miocic (20-4-0)
Jones returned to the octagon after a 3-year absence, posting a first-round submission win over Ciryl Gane to snatch the heavyweight strap at UFC 285 in his step up to the heavyweight division. The 37-year-old is making his way back from a torn pectoral muscle, which pushed this event back more than a year.
Miocic last fought at UFC 260, losing in a second-round KO/TKO against Francis Ngannou in a championship bout. The greatest heavyweight in UFC history now gets a shot at the most decorated fighter in company history in an epic showdown between 2 fighters at the tail end of their careers.
Miocic is a punching machine who will want to try and keep this an upright brawl, while Jones will want to get him down to the canvas to get all serpentine on the former champ, looking for a submission victory.
Jones has a 4.5-inch reach advantage, while the difference in significant strikes landed per minute, as well as the accuracy on those strikes, is fairly negligible.
Jones has an ever-so-slight 1.93-to-1.86 takedown average, with a 45.36% takedown accuracy percentage, to just 34.25% for Miocic. Bones has a 0.48 submission average, too, which he’d love to improve.
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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1:24 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Jones -700 (bet $700 to win $100) | Miocic +475 (bet $100 to win $475)
- Total rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over +110 | Under -145)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -500)
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Jones (-700) will cost you more 7 times your potential return, if you’re looking to back him straight up. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.
As far as Miocic (+475) is concerned, the layoff has just been too much, and that makes him a super risky pick. It would be an amazing upset, and frankly, it’s stunning to see the former champ, and one of the most dominant heavyweights in UFC history, as such a heavy underdog. It’s tempting to play him straight up.
The best course of action is to take JONES BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+100) at even money. Miocic has been away a while, and it won’t end well against Jones, one of the best to ever do it.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) may be the best play on the board.
Jones has actually ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights, but those distance bouts were from March 2019 to Feb. 2020. In his most recent bout in March 2023, he needed just 2:04 to submit Gane.
For Miocic, he has seen just 2 of his past 10 fights go the distance, and 5 of those fights didn’t make it out of the first round. It would be stunning to see this one last into the night.
As far as No (-500): Will fight go the distance?, that’s just way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
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