In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Dominick Reyes and Dustin Jacoby meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 57 — also known as UFC Louisville — at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 57: Reyes vs. Jacoby odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Reyes (12-4-0) | Jacoby (19-8-1)
These 2 fighters are both skidding hard and in need of a victory. Reyes enters with 3 consecutive KO/TKO losses since a unanimous-decision setback to Jon Jones at UFC 247 in Feb. 2020. His last win came Oct. 18, 2019, against Chris Weidman in a Fight Night main event, so, yeah, it’s been a minute.
Reyes has ended up going the distance just once in the past 5 fights, and he hasn’t been out of the 2nd round in 3 straight outings.
Jacoby hasn’t been much better, as he has lost 3 of his past 4 fights, with only an 82-second KO/TKO of Kennedy Nzechukwu to show for his efforts. He has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights and 5 of his previous 7 outings.
Reyes has a slight 1-inch height advantage and a 1-inch reach advantage. The southpaw Reyes has a 51.49% mark in significant strikes accuracy percentage, but Jacoby has 5.53 significant strikes landed per minute to just 4.75 for the veteran Reyes.
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UFC on ESPN 57: Reyes vs. Jacoby odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:36 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Reyes +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Jacoby -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +130)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +160 | No -225)
UFC on ESPN 57: Reyes vs. Jacoby picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Both of these fighters need a win to get back on track. Jacoby (-250) is a good bet to get it done, but not if you have to risk 2½ times your potential return. Let’s get a little more specific.
Reyes (+200) can’t be trusted. He has lost 4 straight fights, including 3 via KO/TKO. A spinning backfist against Jiri Prochazka earned Reyes a 6-month medical suspension. He just hasn’t been the same since his loss to Bones.
With 3 straight KO/TKO losses, JACOBY BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+100) at even-money on the 7-way Method of Victory is your best bet.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) isn’t necessarily priced out of line, but Reyes made it just 80 seconds last time out, and that raises a red flag. And Jacoby has had a pair of 1st-round KO/TKO wins in his previous 5 outings, so it could easily finish well ahead of the middle of Round 2.
No (-225): Will the fight go the distance? is too much risk for not enough reward, either.
If you want to take a chance on a big pay day, JACOBY TO WIN IN 60 SECONDS OR LESS (+1100) is worth a look. Heck, just put $5 or $10 on it, and it is still a nice little chunk of change.
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