In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Anthony Smith and Vitor Petrino meet Saturday at UFC 301 at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 301: Smith vs. Petrino odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET and is on pay-per-view.
Records: Smith (37-19-0) | Petrino (11-0-0)
Smith, a.k.a. “Lionheart”, is looking to bounce back after a 3rd-round KO/TKO loss to Khalil Rountree Jr. last time out in early December. He has dropped 3 of his past 4 fights since July 30, 2022, with only a split-decision win over Ryan Spann in the stretch. He has ended up going the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts, lasting into Round 3 on each of the 3 outings.
Petrino will be fighting in front of his countrymen in Rio. He has won all 4 of his fights since making his debut at the UFC debut, including a unanimous-decision win over Tyson Pedro last time out on March 2. Petrino has ended up going the distance in 2 of his 4 UFC bouts while going into the 3rd round on 3 occasions.
The 35-year-old Smith has the experience, but the 26-year-old Petrino has the youth, and he is fighting in his native Brazil in front of a raucous crowd. Petrino holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage, while Smith has a 3.21-to-2.74 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Petrino is more accurate on those strikes, however, landing 54.23%, to 51.89% for Smith.
Petrino is much better on the ground, too, posting a 3.86 takedown average, 68.18% takedown accuracy percentage and 0.77 submission average.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
UFC 301: Smith vs. Petrino odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Smith +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Petrino -550 (bet $550)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +150)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +185 | No -225)
UFC 301: Smith vs. Petrino picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Petrino (-550) will cost you 5½ times your potential return, which is way too much risk for not enough return. Instead, let’s get a little more specific on the fight finish.
The Brazilian fighter has been a knockout artist, winning 7 of his 11 professional bouts via KO/TKO. While that’s all well and good, Smith (+400) might be the most experienced fighter he has met.
Petrino has gone the distance in 2 of the past 4 fights, while Smith has had just 1 finish in the past 3 outings. Back PETRINO BY DECISION (+225) for the chance to double up.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) is a little too expensive, costing you more than 2 times your potential return. As a standalone wager, it’s not recommended, but including it in a multi-part parlay is certainly an acceptable play.
YES (+165): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the better play at plus-money. Smith has ended up going the distance in 2 of the past 3 outings, while Petrino has ended up going the distance twice in the past 4 outings, and he fought into Round 3 against Marcin Prachnio in July 2023 at UFC 290, nearly going the distance then, too.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
