In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 56 at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Lewis (27-12-0) | Nascimento (11-1-0)
Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast”, makes his 2nd consecutive main event appearance, 5th main event in the past 9 bouts since Aug. 8, 2020, and 11th main event in his UFC career.
Lewis has managed just 2 victories in the past 7 fights since UFC 265, a 3rd-round KO/TKO loss to Ciryl Gane in a championship bout. His only 2 wins in the 7-bout span are Round 1 knockouts of Chris Daukaus and Marcos Rogerio de Lima.
Nascimento has been a quick riser in the UFC ranks, winning 3 straight fights despite the fact the quality of opponent has been increasing. He had a split-decision win over Tanner Boser in Sept. 2022, and a split-decision win over Ilir Latifi in May 2023. He also pushed past Don’Tale Myers via unanimous-decision last time out. Nascimento has topped Myers twice already in his UFC career.
The 39-year-old Lewis is 8 years older than the Brazilian fighter, and Nascimento has a slight 1-inch reach advantage. Experience is on the side of Lewis, and it’s not even close. Nascimento has managed 4.31 significant strikes landed per minute, to just 2.43 for Lewis over his career. And Nascimento is slightly more accurate at 55.26%.
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UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Lewis -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Nascimento +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +115 | Under -150)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +600 | No -1400)
UFC on ESPN 56: Lewis vs. Nascimento picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
This fight is all about experience. LEWIS (-165) has been through a ton of the wars, fighting in 11 previous main events. Nascimento (+135) is, well, nascent. He has a bright future, but the time is not now for the Brazilian fighter.
While Lewis has been struggling to get the job done, he has been fighting a ton of top-notch talent during the span. He is coming off of a unanimous-decision loss to Jailton Almeida last time out in early November.
While Nascimento lands more punches, the experience of Lewis should be leaned into. He is a solid play on the 2-way line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Nascimento has ended up going the distance in 3 straight fights, but he won’t be able to go toe-to-toe with Lewis.
Lewis is a knockout artist, and that’s the best method of victory and play. Roll with LEWIS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-140) on the 5-way line for method. You can drop the submission part on the 7-way line, and just go with Lewis by KO/TKO or DQ (-135), but you don’t save much, and you take away another potential avenue to victory. It makes no sense.
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+115) is a solid play at plus-money, as we should be able to at least get past the midway portion of Round 2. He has gone Over 1.5 rounds in 3 of his past 7, while Nascimento has had 3 straight decisions. Go Over.
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