In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Karl Williams and Justin Tafa meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 89 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Williams (9-1-0) | Tafa (7-3-0)
Williams heads into this bout with 3 unanimous-decision wins in 3 fights since joining the UFC. He has 6 consecutive pro victories dating back to B2 Fighting Series 142: Kentucky in a championship bout against Jason Butcher Dec. 4, 2021. He lost via triangle choke/submission in that lone setback in 10 career bouts. He posted a UD win over veteran Chase Sherman last time out in mid-May.
Tafa is coming off a KO/TKO win in 82 seconds against Austen Lane at UFC 293, and he had 3 straight wins via KO/TKO, all in Round 1. He has picked up 4 wins in 7 bouts at the UFC level with one no contest.
Williams holds a 5-inch reach advantage against Tafa, so he’ll be able to pull the fighter in and out at his discretion. The southpaw Tafa has a 5.13-to-2.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, so it would behoove Williams to keep Tafa at a distance. Each fighter is nearly identical in accuracy, with Williams at 59.67% significant strike accuracy percentage, and Tafa at 59.09%.
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UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Williams -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Tafa +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)
UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Williams (-185) is just a little too pricey straight up on the 2-way line, although it wouldn’t be unacceptable to toss him into a multi-fighter, or multi-leg, parlay of some sort.
You just can’t risk nearly 2 times your potential return on a single bet, especially against a veteran like Tafa (+150).
Get a little more specific instead. WILLIAMS BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) is a much better play. He’ll be able to push and pull Tafa out due to his immense reach advantage, and Williams has won all 3 of his fights via decision at the UFC level. He has been in no hurry to get finishes.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the pricey side, but it isn’t bad if you like to play it safe.
YES (+130): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a decent bet if you don’t want to necessarily declare a winner, but want a little action on this fight. Williams is methodical, and he hasn’t secured an early finish in 3 fights at the UFC level.
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