FC Cincinnati welcomes NYCFC to TQL Stadium for the deciding game of their best-of-3 first-round series Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s soccer odds around the FC Cincinnati vs. NYCFC odds, and make our best MLS picks and predictions.
FC Cincinnati had another solid season and finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference with an 18-5-11 (W-D-L) record and a +10 goal differential. Cincinnati was 7-3-7 at home. It struggled down the stretch, losing 3 of its last 4 games, but it did finish the regular season with a 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Union. Cincy took Game 1 of this playoff series 1-0 Oct. 28, having 3.3 expected goals to NYCFC’s 0.3.
NYCFC bounced back and won Game 2 at home 3-1 Saturday, ending with 1.2 more expected goals. NYCFC has struggled defensively, having not held their opponent scoreless since July 13. New York has been held scoreless in 2 of its last 3 games. It went 4-5-8 on the road and finished 6th in the East with a +5 goal differential. F Alonso Martínez leads the club with 16 goals.
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FC Cincinnati vs. NYCFC odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of soccer odds. Lines last updated at 2:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: FC Cincinnati -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | NYCFC +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Draw +280
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -160 | U: +115)
FC Cincinnati vs. NYCFC picks and predictions
Prediction
FC Cincinnati 1, NYCFC 1
Moneyline (ML)
BET DRAW (+280).
Despite Cincinnati being at home, which is typically an advantage, it was significantly better on the road, while losing 7 games at home during the regular season. FC Cincinnati lost its last 2 regular-season games by a combined score of 5-2. It had 3.3 expected goals in its first home playoff match against NYCFC but only knocked in 1 goal, so it wasn’t able to convert scoring chances.
NYCFC was able to generate opportunities over its last 7 games, ending with 1.3 or more expected goals in its last 4 regular-season games. NYCFC was 4-5-8 on the road, so it’s used to draws. New York City has drawn 5 of its last 13 games.
Considering how poorly Cincinnati plays at home and frequently NYCFC has drawn recently, there’s good value in DRAW (+280).
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (+115).
This should be an intense match, and opportunities should be limited. NYCFC has gone Under this total in 2 of its last 3 games and has allowed just 1 goal apiece in 5 of its last 7.
FC Cincinnati has struggled defensively, but it has allowed 4 goals in the last 3 games and has held 2 of its last 3 opponents to 0.8 expected goals or fewer. So, Cincy’s defense has improved as of late.
Considering the intensity this game should have, expect fewer opportunities, and with both defenses having stepped up, BACK UNDER 2.5 (+115).
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