In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 238 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 96 and UFC Vegas 87 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 238: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 1 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 4 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Records: Rozenstruik (13-5-0) | Gaziev (12-0-0)
The Suriname-born Rozenstruik is looking to bounce back after a 1st-round submission loss to Jailton Almeida last time out in the main event in mid-May. He has dropped 3 of the past 4 fights, and each of his previous 3 outings have not made it out of the 1st round. Rozenstruik has ended up going the distance just twice in 12 bouts since arriving at the UFC level.
Gaziev made his debut in grand fashion at UFC 296, dropping Martin Buday in the 2nd round in a KO/TKO win. He also had a submission victory in Round 1 against Greg Velasco in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 7, Week 7.
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UFC Fight Night 238: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Rozenstruik +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Gaziev -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +135 | Under -185)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +750 | No -2500)
UFC Fight Night 238: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Gaziev (-200) is a 34-year-old who is getting a bit of a late start at the UFC level. But he was impressive against Buday last time out, and he is facing a struggling Rozenstruik (+160). The veteran has had his moments in the UFC, but Rozenstruik just can’t seem to stack wins anymore after a promising start to his career.
Still, you can’t risk 2 times your potential return. Instead, look to the method of victory, and back GAZIEV BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+125) at plus-money for a much better value.
Over/Under (O/U)
The fact Rozenstruik hasn’t made it out of the 1st round in the past 3 fights makes UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-185) quite attractive. It’s a little on the expensive side, but the higher price can be excused as part of a parlay.
No (-2500): Will the fight go the distance? should be ignored, and at that price, it shouldn’t really even need to be said. There is never a value playing such high odds.
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