In a 5-round flyweight bout in the co-main event, Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 237 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 95 — at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 237: Royval vs. Moreno odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Records: Royval (15-7-0) | Moreno (21-7-2)
Royval is coming off a title shot at UFC 296, and he came up just short against Alexandre Pantoja in a unanimous-decision loss. That was his 2nd straight loss to Pantoja. He also has fought Moreno before, suffering a 1st-round KO/TKO at UFC 255 in the final second of the opening 5 minutes. He also sustained a shoulder injury in that bout.
As such, Royval is just 3-3 across the past 6 bouts, with 2 of his past 4 fights finishing inside the distance.
Moreno also suffered a loss to Pantoja in a title fight at UFC 290, losing by split decision in July 2023. He held the title after tapping Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 263, before losing it back to him at UFC 270. He topped Kai Kara-France at UFC 277 to reclaim the title while defending it with a TKO-Doctor’s Stoppage at UFC 283 in a 4th fight with Figueiredo before his loss of the strap to Pantoja.
Moreno holds a 2-inch reach advantage over the southpaw Royval. Both fighters have an identical 3.80 significant strikes landed per minute, while Royval is quite a bit more accurate at 57.51% on the strikes, to just 49.92% for Moreno. The defending champ is better on takedowns with a 1.73 average, although Royval owns the 1.50 submission average to just 0.51 for Moreno.
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UFC Fight Night 237: Royval vs. Moreno odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Royval +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Moreno -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -150 | Under +115)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)
UFC Fight Night 237: Royval vs. Ortega picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Moreno (-300) costs too much on the 2-way line, costing 3 times your potential return. That’s too much risk for not enough reward, especially against an experienced fighter like Royval (+240) in the rematch.
Both of these fighters are experienced, and Moreno has shown an ability in his career to get it done via a number of ways. In 30 career pro bouts, he has 5 KO/TKO wins and 11 submission victories, and he has never lost via either method.
Play MORENO BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+150) on the 5-way line for a solid payday.
Over/Under (O/U)
Royval was forced out at the end of Round 1 in the 1st fight. He isn’t going to go that quickly in the 2nd chance. He is a good fighter who can more than hold his own if it is a toe-to-toe brawl. However, when Moreno got him to the mat in the 1st fight, the defending champ was winning the day. That’s where Royval’s problems started.
Royval should last much longer, but UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (+115) is still a value play at plus-money.
And if you’re a little more conservative, NO: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (-135) is not terribly priced out of line and an attractive play, too.
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