In a 5-round middleweight championship bout in the main event, Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya meet Saturday at UFC 305 at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Records: Du Plessis (21-2-0) | Adesanya (24-3-0)
These 2 African combatants fight for the middleweight strap in the Southern Hemisphere, but down under in Australia.
Du Plessis plucked the middleweight strap from Sean Strickland via split decision last time out at UFC 297. Since landing in the UFC, the South African fighter has won all 7 of his fights, including 5 wins inside the distance. In those 5 finishes, 4 have come via KO/TKO, including 3 straight in Round 2, while also recording 1 submission win over Darren Till at UFC 282.
On the flip side, Adesanya was on the short end of a unanimous-decision loss to Strickland at UFC 293. So, “The Last Stylebender” has managed losses in 2 of his past 3 fights, all championship bouts, and he is just 4-3 in the previous 7 outings, again, all title fights.
Stylebender avenged a 5th-round KO/TKO at UFC 281 against Alex Pereira by winning his belt back with a 2nd-round KO/TKO at UFC 287 in the rematch. However, 5 of his past 7 fights have ended up going the distance.
Adesanya heads into this bout with a 4-inch reach advantage, although the switch-stance South African fighter has a huge 6.49-to-3.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Du Plessis is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 52.03% to 51.68% for Adesanya.
In the takedown Game, Du Plessis will look to turn this into a wrestling match. He has 3.00 takedown average and 51.61% takedown accuracy percentage. He also has a 0.75-to-0.15 submission average advantage.
Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Du Plessis -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Adesanya -116 (bet $116 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over +104 | Under -132)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +108 | No -136)
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
This is an intriguing fight, as Du Plessis (-102) is a punching machine. And, after years of being an impenetrable wall, ADESANYA (-116) has shown some cracks. But, the Nigerian fighter knows how to wow the judges and do what it takes to outpoint his opponent.
In this particular fight, Adesanya will have his work cut out, as Du Plessis has an impressive 1.72 striking differential, 3rd among all active middleweights. But, Adesanya has a 57.4% significant strike defense mark, ranking 7th among all active fighters in the division.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (+104) is a solid play, as Adesanya fights tend to go long. Du Plessis, with his 6.49 strikes landed per minute, will be looking to fix that, but don’t expect a quick finish.
In fact, YES (+108): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? at plus-money is a decent value, given Adesanya’s history. With his 4-inch reach advantage, he’ll be able to push and pull Du Plessis out and keep him at a distance when he wants.
And, if you really want to get specific, ADESANYA BY POINTS (+230) for the chance to more than double up is certainly worth a roll of the dice.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
