In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Gilbert Burns and Jack Della Maddalena meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on Pay-Per-View.
Records: Burns (22-6-0) | Della Maddalena (16-2-0)
Burns takes the walk looking to rebound from a unanimous-decision loss to Belal Muhammad at UFC 288 last time out in early May. He has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 5 fights, with a 1st-round submission win over Neil Magny at UFC 283 as the only exception during the 5-fight stretch.
Della Maddalena has earned a pair of split-decision wins in his past 2 fights, including a win over Kevin Holland at Noche UFC in mid-September. Since making his UFC debut, he is a perfect 6-0, with 4 fights finishing inside the distance.
Della Maddalena holds a 2-inch reach advantage, and the switch-stance fighter is 10 years younger than the underdog. JDM also holds an impressive 7.20-to-3.36 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 57.03% to 56.49% for Burns. The Brazilian fighter has a solid 1.95 takedown average, and 0.53 submission average, so the Aussie will likely be looking to stay upright.
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UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Burns +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Della Maddalena -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +145)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)
UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
DELLA MADDALENA (-160) is worth a look as a moderate favorite on the 2-way line. As long as he can avoid getting into a wrestling match on the canvas, where Burns (+130) has a slight advantage, the favorite will be in good shape.
Since arriving at the UFC level, he is a perfect 6-for-6, and he has done just enough to wow the judges with his technique in the past 2 split-decision wins. Don’t be surprised to see the Aussie need the help of the judges yet again. DELLA MADDALENA ON POINTS (+300) for the chance to multiple up by 3 times if too tempting to pass up.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-190) is a little too expensive, costing nearly 2 times your potential return.
Instead, YES (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the way to go. Burns has had just 1 of his past 5 fights finish inside the distance, while again, Della Maddalena has had a pair of split-decision wins in his past 2 outings. As such, Yes is a nice value.
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