In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 59 at Ball Arena in Denver. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 59: Namajunas vs. Cortez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Namajunas (13-6-0) | Cortez (11-1-0)
Namajunas fights in her 2nd consecutive fight night main event. She took care of Amanda Ribas last time out UFC on ESPN 53 back in late March. “Thug” has ended up going the distance in each of her past 4 fights, including a championship defense against Zhang Weili at UFC 268 on Nov. 6, 2021, while also losing via split-decision to Carla Esparza at UFC 271 to lose her strap.
Cortez is quickly rising through the ranks with 5 straight wins since joining the UFC level. Her past 7 professional bouts have ended up going the distance dating back to a split-decision win over Erin Blanchfield at Invicta FC 54 Feb. 15, 2019.
Cortez, who is married to fellow UFC fight Brian Ortega, is quickly rising through the ranks. She is a perfect 5-for-5 since joining the company, while also taking care of Mariya Agapova in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 3, Week 6. She has won 11 straight pro bouts since losing her career debut to Cheri Muraski at Invicta FC 25 by submission back on Aug. 31, 2017.
Cortez holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, while she has a slight 4.11-to-3.69 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the veteran Namajunas. Cortez is also much more accurate with those strikes at 61.55% to 45.79%, while posting a 2.33-to-1.38 takedown average advantage. The difference in takedown accuracy percentage and submission average is negligible.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
UFC on ESPN 59: Namajunas vs. Cortez odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Namajunas -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Cortez +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
- Fight to start Round 5: (Yes -350 | Under +225)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -275 | No +200)
UFC on ESPN 59: Namajunas vs. Cortez picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Namajunas (-225) is a former champ at this weight division, and it wasn’t very long ago she was decorated with the belt. In fact, she has 2 championship bout wins, and 2 successful title defenses before losing the belt. She is tough, and she is experienced. However, risking more than 2 times your potential return against a challenger unbeaten at the UFC level is risky business.
Cortez (+190) has the impressive record, but she has also fought a lot of tomato cans along the way. Facing Namajunas is a giant step up in comPetition. Look for the champ to take care of Business, wowing the judges. NAMAJUNAS BY DECISION (-110) is the way to go.
Over/Under (O/U)
There are no Over/Under round bets for this fight. It’s simply a prop on whether the bell rings to start Round 5, and Yes (-350) will set you back 3 1/2 times your potential return. That’s still a bit risky.
Yes (-275): Fight to go the distance? is also still quite pricey, and not a recommended play unless you fold it into a multi-leg parlay of some sort.
PASS, unless betting the distance as a leg of your multi-pronged parlay.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
