In a 5-round welterweight championship bout in the co-main event, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).
Records: Edwards (22-3-0) | Muhammad (23-3-0)
The southpaw Edwards took the welterweight strap from Kamaru Usman with a 5th-round KO/TKO win at UFC 278 in August 2022. Edwards then defended the belt at UFC 286 with a majority-decision win in March 2023. In his next fight, his 2nd title defense, Edwards posted a unanimous-decision win over Colby Covington at UFC 296 in December.
Edwards has 4 straight wins since a no-contest against Muhammad in their 1st bout in a UFC Fight Night 187 main event in March 2021, which ended in an accidental eye poke early in Round 2.
MuhaMMAd likes to fight long into the night, and PPV fans are likely to get their money’s worth. He has ended up going the distance 4 times in the past 5 bouts, including a win via unanimous decision against Gilbert Burns last time out at UFC 288 in May 2023. MuhaMMAd has gone the distance in 12 of his past 15 bouts since Feb. 11, 2017.
Edwards has also ended up going the distance pretty frequently, including 3 of his past 4 fights, and 11 of the past 15 fights since July 18, 2015.
Edwards has a 2-inch reach advantage, and 3-inch height advantage. While Muhammad has a substantial 4.55-to-2.75 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, Edwards is more accurate with those strikes at 59.36%. Muhammad lands roughly half of his significant strikes at 50.31%.
In takedown average, Muhammad has a slight lead at 1.98-to-1.25, while the takedown-accuracy percentage is nearly identical. Edwards has a 0.42 submission average, to just 0.17 for Muhammad.
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UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:51 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Edwards -265 (bet $265 to win $100) | Muhammad +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -215 | Under +162)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -190 | No +148)
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Edwards (-265) will set you back 2.65 times the potential return. That’s pretty risky in a bout featuring a pair of fighters who usually rely upon the judges to determine a winner.
Still, Edwards hasn’t lost since Dec. 19, 2015, nearly a decade of wins. If you were to toss the champ into a multi-leg parlay, it isn’t a bad bet. You just can’t bet this straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
It’s actually surprising YES (-190): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t a little more expensive, given the frequency these 2 fighters end up going the distance. Backing it straight up, risking 1.9 times the potential return, isn’t terribly attractive, but it is a sound bet. Tossing this into a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) or multi-leg ticket, isn’t a bad idea, either.
In addition, EDWARDS ON POINTS (+120) at plus-money, in front of his fellow countrymen in Manchester, should be a rather decent investment, too.
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