In a 5-round women’s strawweight championship bout on the main card, Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan meet Saturday at UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 300: Zhang vs. Yan odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.
Records: Zhang (24-3-0) | Yan (18-3-0)
Zhang defended her title against Amanda Lemos last time out at UFC 292. She won the women’s strawweight strap with a 2nd-round submission win over Carla Esparza at UFC 281. Despite the unanimous-decision win against Lemos, Zhang has ended up going the distance just 3 times in the past 7 bouts.
Yan made quick work of Jessica Andrade at UFC 288, winning in the 1st round after just 2:20. She has consecutive victories after back-to-back setbacks against Marina Rodriguez via split-decision, and KO/TKO against Carla Esparza in May 2021.
These pair of 34-year-old Chinese fighters have an identical reach of 63 inches. Zhang has a slight 5.94-to-5.55 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while she is a little more accurate at 59.28% to Yan’s 49.95%. Zhang is more superior on takedowns, too, posting a 2.29 TD average and 0.36 submission average.
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UFC 300: Zhang vs. Yan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Zhang -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Yan +390 (bet $100 to win $390)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -145 | Under +110)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -165)
UFC 300: Zhang vs. Yan picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Yan (+390) is a tempting play for the opportunity to nearly quadruple up if she can score the upset. Zhang (-550) will cost you 5½ times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward.
Let’s get a little more specific instead. ZHANG BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+200) makes a lot more sense for the chance to double up. She has only gone the distance in 3 of the past 6 bouts, but Yan has had just 2 finishes in the past 10 outings.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-145) isn’t priced out of line, and you have a full round and a half of wiggle room in the event of a late finish ruining your method of victory play.
In addition, YES: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (+120) at plus-money is a solid bet. Again, Yan has ended up going the distance 8 times in the past 10 outings.
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