Timberwolves vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks & Odds - Game 4

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been outscored by only 13 total points in these Western Conference Finals, yet the Dallas Mavericks are holding a 3-0 series lead. If either of the Timberwolves’ All-Stars showed up in a productive way in this series, Minnesota could be holding a 3-0 lead of its own.

Your instinct may be to bet on either Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns to come out seeking redemption tonight, but there has been a more reliable offensive piece for Minnesota in this series. Let’s turn to that unexpected offense in our free NBA picks as we dig into Timberwolves vs. Mavericks predictions for Tuesday, May 28.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction

My best bet
Kyle Anderson Over 5.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

Neither Anthony Edwards nor Karl-Anthony Towns showed an offensive approach in Game 3 that warrants any confidence in tonight’s Game 4. Edwards went just 11 of 24 from the field, though he at least returned to attacking the rim, taking 22 of his shots from inside the arc. Nonetheless, he is still unable to find space in the midrange, with the Dallas Mavericks intent on sagging off the Minnesota Timberwolves' shooters to crowd Edwards.

Towns was one of those shooters with open looks, and he responded by going a baffling 0-for-8. Any criticism of Towns’ taking that many 3s is misguided. A 41.6% 3-point shooter this season on 5.3 looks per game, Towns’s 3-pointers are efficient moments for a struggling offense. They just didn’t go in.

That could impact Towns tonight, which will in turn continue to crowd the court for Edwards.

Instead, let’s look at this game defensively. The Timberwolves clearly need Jaden McDaniels on Luka Doncic for all moments in the fourth quarter. For that matter, they need a somewhat aggressive McDaniels available in those moments.

Part of Doncic’s seven points in Game 3’s fourth quarter could be ascribed to McDaniels picking up his fifth foul with nearly eight minutes remaining.

To save McDaniels from some of that foul trouble, Minnesota should play Kyle Anderson more in the first half. He may incur all sorts of jokes, but Anderson has been an offensive asset in this series, averaging 9.3 points on just 6.3 shots per Game. More pertinently, Anderson can somewhat guard Doncic, perhaps better than anyone else on the Timberwolves’ roster aside from McDaniels.

Focusing Anderson on Doncic in the first half should allow McDaniels to handle that duty in clutch time, and giving Anderson those minutes should lead to a few more buckets.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)

Towns gets mocked for his approach to offense because so many people still prefer to see a 7-footer live in the paint. That ignores Towns having one of the most consistent shots in the NBA. His going 0-for-8 from deep cost Minnesota dearly in Game 3, but the fact remains that they were all good looks.

It defies comprehension to think he would have a similarly bad showing tonight, though sportsbooks have knocked his 3-pointers made prop down because of Sunday night.

The Mavericks will have their own big-man shooter back, with Maxi Kleber widely expected to return to the Dallas lineup for the first time since the first round. Kleber’s minutes may be limited, and his shooting may take a few looks to feel normal after a shoulder injury, but any Kleber action should draw Towns away from the hoop defensively. Logically, it should not take many such minutes to cut into Towns’ rebounds.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks odds

Timberwolves vs Mavericks live odds

Get the latest Timberwolves vs Mavericks NBA playoff odds for Game 4.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks opening odds

• Spread: Minnesota +133 | Dallas -147
• Moneyline: Minnesota +3 | Dallas -3
• Over/Under: Over 210 | Under 210

Timberwolves vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

• After yet another abysmal fourth quarter, the Timberwolves opened late Sunday night as 3.5-point underdogs in this Game 4, but that fell to +2 by Monday morning and then to +1.5 at some books on Tuesday morning.
• The total opened at 210 and has largely remained there, dropping to 209.5 for part of Monday morning and rising to 210.5 or 211, depending on your sportsbook, on Tuesday morning.
• Despite the spread falling two points, BetMGM reports more than 70% of bets and money, as of Tuesday morning, are on the Mavericks. Some would look at that reverse line movement as a Timberwolves endorsement, though perhaps boldly so.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks trend

The home team has won all three first halves of this series, the road team has won each third quarter, and the Mavericks have won all of the fourth quarters. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks game info

Timberwolves vs Mavericks latest injuries