The Washington Capitals (10-4-1) and Colorado Avalanche (9-8-0) meet Friday in Denver. The opening faceoff at Ball Arena will be at 9 p.m. (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Capitals vs. Avalanche odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting; Colorado won 2-0 last season
Washington, which has alternated wins and losses over its last 6 games (3-2-1), is opening a 3-game road swing. The Capitals’ last game was Wednesday, a 4-3 overtime loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Washington toted a 3-1 lead into the final 5 minutes of that contest.
Colorado is closing out a 4-game homestand. The Avalanche won the first 3 games of that stretch, including a 4-2 win onWednesday vs. the LA Kings. Over the last 2 seasons, the Avs have won each of 4 meetings with the Caps.
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Capitals at Avalanche odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NHL odds. Lines last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Capitals +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Avalanche -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Capitals +1.5 (-165) | Avalanche -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Capitals at Avalanche projected goalies
Charlie Lindgren (3-4-0, 2.76 GAA, .897 SV%) vs. Alexandar Georgiev (4-5-0, 3.56 GAA, .863 SV%)
Lindgren lost his last start Nov. 8 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins and has dropped 3 of his last 4. The 30-year-old veteran has faced Colorado just twice before, logging a shaky .848 SV%.
Georgiev went the route in Wednesday’s Game against the Kings, stopping 13 of 15 pucks. The struggling netminder has clocked a 90% mark in just 2 of his 10 Games this season.
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Capitals at Avalanche picks and predictions
Prediction
Avalanche 3, Capitals 2
Moneyline
Washington has played just 3 road games (1-2-0) since Oct. 22, and the Capitals are facing an Avalanche club that has won 4 in a row on home ice.
In Colorado sweeping 4 games from Washington over the last 2 seasons, the Avs have outscored the Caps 19-7. And the Avs are the value side on this one.
The Capitals’ 5-on-5 analytics don’t fully support the team’s 4.13 goals per game. Washington does generate a lot of quality looks, but an ultra-high shooting percentage on its high-danger chances does not figure as a repeatable, likely-to-continue trend.
The projected-starter Georgiev has certainly had his struggles, but he does own a solid .913 SV% over his last 4 starts.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a better price to leverage on the home favorites here: BACK COLORADO (-156).
Puck line/Against the spread
PASS: Washington does have the offensive numbers to make the puck line an iffier proposition.
Over/Under
Colorado netted 6 goals in each of last year’s meetings, and both Games cashed on the Over. But the analytics lean here, with some added benefit of Georgiev being sharper of late, make for leverage on the Under.
Washington’s 5-on-5 expected goals vs. actual just can’t be discounted. Some neutral puck luck figures to send the Caps’ scoring numbers lower in the intermediate future.
FanDuel Sportsbook again has a better tag with which to work. TAKE THE UNDER 6.5 (+100).
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