In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 61 — also known as UFC Vegas 95 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Tybura (25-8-0) | Spivac (16-4-0)
Tybura suffered a 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Tom Aspinall in the main event in a Fight Night July 22, 2023. He rebounded in the main event against Tai Tuivasa in a 1st-round submission win March 16. Tybura has managed 4 stoppages in the past 7 fights, although he has gone the distance 6 times in the past 10 outings.
This is actually the 2nd meeting at the UFC level between these fighters. Tybura picked up a unanimous-decision victory Feb. 29, 2020.
Spivac, aka the Polar Bear, is looking for the bounceback after getting knocked out in Round 2 by Ciryl Gane in a main event Sept. 2, 2023. That comes on the heels of a Round 1 submission in a main event Feb. 4, 2023. Each of his past 5 fights have finished inside the distance.
The 38-year-old Tybura has an ever-so-slight 3.60-to-3.54 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Spivac has a 62.06% significant strikes accuracy percentage. Spivac also has an impressive 4.56 takedown average while posting a 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage and 0.51 submission average.
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UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Tybura +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Spivac -156 (bet $156 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -102 | Under -124)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +162 | No -215)
UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
SPIVAC (-156) is a strong play as a moderate favorite in this rematch.
Tybura (+132) won the 1st meeting back in Feb. 2020, but that’s over 4 years ago, and now Tybura is in his upper 30s with a lot of tread on the tires.
Spivac will be trying to get Tybura to the mat early and often, as he is the far more superior grappler.
SPIVAC BY KO/TKO (+195) is worth a look in the “Method of Victory”, as 4 of his past 5 fights have ended via knockout, with 2 wins and 2 losses by way of the method.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-124) is worth a play. Neither of these fighters have been distance fighters, especially lately.
Each of the past 5 fights for Spivac have finished inside the distance, and 3 of the bouts in the span haven’t made it out of Round 1.
For Tybura, each of his past 2 bouts have also ended in Round 1, although 3 of the past 5 fights have gone the distance, so don’t get too carried away.
However, playing No (-215): Will the fight go the distance? is a little on the expensive side, so PASS on that.
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