In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Vicente Luque and Joaquin Buckley meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Luque (22-9-1) | Buckley (17-6-0)
Luque is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Rafael dos Anjos in mid-August in his most recent fight. That halted a 2-bout losing skid with a KO/TKO setback against Geoff Neal in Aug. 2022, and a UD loss to Belal Muhammad in the main event in mid-April of 2022.
Buckley ended up with a UD win over Alex Morono last time out in early October, and he had a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Andre Fialho prior to that. His last loss was a KO/TKO in the 2nd round against Chris Curtis at UFC 282. Buckley has picked up wins in 5 of the past 7 fights, going the distance 3 times.
The southpaw Buckley holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, while Luque has a 5.17-to-3.87 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The favorite is way more accurate on those strikes, too, hitting 56.04%, while Buckley throws punches wildly, with just a 35.56% significant strikes accuracy percentage.
In the takedown game, Buckley has 1.51-to-1.04 advantage, although, again, Luque is more accurate at 60.87%, while Buckley has just a 36.67% takedown accuracy percentage.
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UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Luque -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Buckley +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)
UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
LUQUE (-135) is just a little more polished. He is 32 years old, and he lands a lot more significant strikes per minute, and he does so with much greater accuracy. And in the takedown department, he is much more accurate there, too.
Luque has gone the distance in 2 of his past 3 fights, and Buckley has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 5 full fights which weren’t ended via doctor’s stoppage. If the judges decide, Luque will win by a mile, as he just does all of the little things better to rack up points throughout the course of a fight.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the pricey side, but it’s worth the risk. These 2 fighters should feel each other out in the 1st round, and it’s unlikely to be a quick finish. As mentioned above, these fighters have both ended up going the distance frequently lately.
YES (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also worth a look at plus-money, and LUQUE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+500) on the 7-way line for a chance to multiply up by 5 times is worth a roll of the dice. That’s a tremendous value.
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