In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Chris Weidman and Bruno Silva meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Weidman (15-7-0) | Silva (23-10-0)
The veteran Weidman has lost 7 of the past 9 fights since Dec. 12, 2015, including a unanimous-decision loss at UFC 292 last time out against Brad Tavares in mid-August. He has been knocked out 3 times in the past 5 outings, and his only victory in the 5-bout span is a unanimous-decision win over Omari Akhmedov in Aug. 2020.
Silv has lost back-to-back fights, too, while dropping 4 of the past 5 outings. However, looking at common opponents, he topped Tavares in a 1st-round KO/TKO last April for his only win in the 5-bout span.
Silva holds a 4.43-to-2.98 significant strikes landed per minute, and he is much more accurate on those strikes at 58.45%, while the veteran Weidman is just 51.85%. Weidman is 5 years older than Silva, while holding a 4-inch reach advantage.
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UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:45 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Weidman +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Silva -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -130 | Under +100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)
UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Silva (-200) is a little on the pricey side, costing you 2 times your potential return. Neither of these fighters has been particularly hot lately, so that’s quite a bit to risk.
While Weidman (+165) has looked like a shell of his former self, he holds a 4-inch reach advantage, and he should be able to keep Silva at a distance. Getting more specific, taking SILVA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-115) is much more price friendly, and it’s a winning bet as long as Silva doesn’t win on points, or obviously if Weidman scores the upset.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-130) is a good bet, as Weidman should be able to hold off Silva until at least the middle of Round 2. That reach advantage shouldn’t be discounted, as he will be able to pull Silva in and out at his discretion.
No (-250): Will the fight go the distance? is a little on the pricey side, costing 2½ times your potential return. While it’s likely we get a finish, nothing has been guaranteed with these fighters lately. Weidman has ended up going the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts while getting knocked out in 17 seconds at UFC 261 in between those decisions. Silva went the distance last time out, but had two Round 1 endings prior to that.
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