In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 239 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 97 and UFC Vegas 88 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Records: Tuivasa (15-6-0) | Tybura (24-8-0)
The southpaw Tuivasa takes the walk looking to halt a 3-bout losing skid. “Bam Bam” suffered a 2nd-round submission loss to veteran Alexander Volkov last time out at UFC 293, and he was knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane in the 2 prior fights.
Tybura is also coming off a loss, as he suffered a KO/TKO loss in just 73 seconds against Tom Aspinall in the main event in late July in a Fight Night in London. Prior to that, the Polish-born fighter had won 7 of his previous 8 fights, with 6 of those bouts going the distance.
Tuivasa holds a slight 3.98-to-3.55 significant strikes landed per minute, although Tybura is a little more accurate at 59.17% with those strikes, to just 51.92% for the Aussie. Tybura also checks in with a 1.39 takedown average and 33.90% takedown accuracy percentage while barely a blip on the radar with a 0.07 submission average. However, Tuivasa is zeroed out in all of those categories, rarely going to the ground game if he can help it.
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UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Tuivasa -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Tybura -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)
UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
TUIVASA (-115) is thirsty for a victory, and he should be able to get it if he is able to keep his feet. Tybura (-105) will want to get the Aussie out of his comfort zone and onto the mat. If Tybura can do that, he has an opportunity to get the job done.
However, Tuivasa should be able to keep this bout upright and go toe-to-toe with Tybura in a brawl. If he does that, he’ll go the same route as Aspinall and make quick work of Tybura.
In fact, playing TUIVASA BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+100) at even-money on the 7-way method of victory category isn’t a bad option. There is no sense paying a little extra and doing the 5-way method, with Tuivasa by KO/TKO, DQ or submission (-105), as the ground Game just isn’t an option for the slight favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a good play here if you’re backing Tuivasa. If the favorite gets the job done, he is going to get it done quickly. On the flip side, if you’re leaning Tybura on the moneyline, then you’ll want Over 1.5 Rounds (-125). For Tybura to hang around, he’ll need to force this to the canvas. If he can do that, he’ll hang around past the midway point of Round 2, and then some. However, that’s not what is expected.
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