In a 5-round heavyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).
Records: Aspinall (14-3-0) | Blaydes (18-4-0)
Aspinall plucked the heavyweight strap from Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295 with a resounding KO/TKO win in just 69 seconds on Nov. 11, 2023. This will be his 1st title defense.
Prior to that victory, Aspinall posted a KO/TKO win over Marcin Tybura in the main event of a fight night in July 2023. That’s 2 straight KO/TKO wins since his last loss, but that’s the rub. His most recent setback was a KO/TKO loss in just 15 seconds in a main event against Blaydes in July 2022.
Blaydes bounced back from a Round 1 KO/TKO loss to Pavlovich in the main event April 22, 2023, posting a KO/TKO in Round 2 against Jailton Almeida at UFC 299 this past March. Each of Blaydes’ past 4 fights have resulted in KO/TKO, with 3 victories, including the short one over Aspinall.
Blaydes, nicknamed Razor, has managed 9 KO/TKO results in his past 12 bouts since June 9, 2018, with 6 victories by way of knockout, and 3 losses — to Pavlovich, Derrick Lewis (February 2021) and Francis Ngannou (November 2018), which is certainly nothing to be ashamed about.
In the tale of the tape, Blaydes holds a 2-inch reach advantage, while Aspinall is an absolute punching machine. He has 7.72 significant strikes landed per minute, while landing them at an impressive 68.08% rate. Blaydes has just a 3.53 significant strikes landed minute rate, but when he does land them, they’re extremely effective.
Both are tremendously efficient in takedown average, with Blaydes checking in at 5.72 and Aspinall at 3.46. Both of those numbers are off the charts. Aspinall has a sparkling 100.0% takedown-accuracy percentage, too, while Blaydes is at 53.45%, which is still phenomenal. Aspinall has an outstanding 1.73 submission average, too.
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UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Aspinall -405 (bet $405 to win $100) | Blaydes +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +134 | Under -172)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +560 | No -1000)
UFC 304: Aspinall vs. Blaydes picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Aspinall (-405) suffered the 15-second knockout against Blaydes (+320) in the July 2022 bout, but even if that didn’t happen, this big -405 number should give bettors pause. Betting such heavy favorites, even as part of a multi-leg parlay, is not a recommended betting strategy over the long term.
Aspinall will be fighting in his native United Kingdom, and he’ll have an arena at full throat which should energize him. In fact, with fellow countryman Leon Edwards fighting in the other co-main event, it’s gonna be a raucous and wild pro-England crowd, resembling a soccer match.
Since we’re rolling with the current champ, playing ASPINALL BY KO/TKO (-155) is the way to go as far as the method of victory is concerned.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-1000): Will the fight go the distance? is ridiculously priced, and even the alternate round betting prop which has Aspinall winning in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 (-230) is a little pricey.
The best prop bet to roll with is FIGHT TO REACH SECOND ROUND: YES (-115). We’re unlikely to see a Round 1 finish as Aspinall won’t be caught with a devastating blow early in the fight like the previous matchup.
In fact, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+134) at plus-money is super tempting, and could be a nice value, too, especially as part of a multi-leg parlay.
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