In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, King Green and Paddy Pimblett meet Saturday at UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, United Kingdom. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).
Records: Green (32-15-1) | Pimblett (21-3-0)
Green bounced back from a 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Jalin Turner in early December with a unanimous-decision win over Jim Miller in mid-April at UFC 300 in Las Vegas. King is 3-1 in his past 4 fights since a no-contest against Jared Gordon in April 2023.
It’s a rarity to see Green fights go the judges’ cards as each of his past 6 bouts resulted in a finish inside the distance. Since a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Al Iaquinta at UFC 268 in November 2021, he has gone the distance just twice in the past 9 events. In fact, in 4 of the past 7 bouts, the fight hasn’t made it past the opening round.
For Pimblett, he is coming off back-to-back unanimous-decision wins over Tony Ferguson (Dec. 16, 2023) and Gordon (Dec. 10, 2022). Prior to that, he submitted Jordan Leavitt (July 2022) and Kazula Vargas (March 2022), while posting a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Luigi Vendramini (September 2021), showing off his versatility.
Since arriving at the UFC level, he has 2 wins by decision, 2 wins by submission and 1 KO/TKO victory. The Baddy can get it done in a number of different ways. In his career, Pimblett is 21-3-0, going 6-0 via KO/TKO and 9-1 by way of submission.
Pimblett has a number of things on his side. The Englishman will have a pro-home crowd spurring him on, and he holds a 2-inch reach advantage. Green has a 6.45-to-5.13 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Pimblett is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 59.67% to 55.21% for Green.
Takedown average difference is negligible, but Paddy has a 1.63 submission average, so it might behoove King to keep this fight upright.
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UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Green -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Pimblett -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -172 | Under +134)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -140 | No +110)
UFC 304: Green vs. Pimblett picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
BACK PIMBLETT (-104). He will easily be facing the toughest opponent he has met at the UFC level as the veteran Green (-112) is a beast.
There isn’t a lot to glean, as far as common opponents, as Green had a no contest against Gordon, while Pimblett eased by Gordon via unanimous-decision.
However, what stands out is that this fight is in Manchester, which is the equivalent of Ivan Drago hosting Rocky in Moscow. It will be a pro-Paddy crowd, but the hometown fans aren’t likely to turn on Pimblett in the end.
BETTING PIMBLETT (-104) is the play here.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-140): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t priced out of line, and it is a good bet in this bout on the main card.
Green ended up going the distance in his last bout — vs. Miller — while Pimblett has needed the assistance of the judges to determine a winner in his past 2 fights. As the quality of opponent increases, so does the length of the bout. That will be especially true in this clash.
If you’re like a little more wiggle room, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-172) is a little pricey, but even if the fight ends in the 2nd half of Round 3 or beyond, you’re a winner.
Since we tabbed the Briton to win on the 2-way line, rolling the dice on PIMBLETT BY POINTS (+280) for the chance to nearly triple up on the method of victory prop is worth a light play.
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