In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the main event, Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.
Records: O’Malley (17-1-0) | Vera (23-8-1)
O’Malley dropped Aljamain Sterling via KO/TKO in Round 2 at UFC 291 to snatch the lightweight championship strap. This will be his 1st title defense. He is trying to hold onto the belt against Vera, the only fighter to beat him since joining the UFC. O’Malley lost via 1st-round KO/TKO at UFC 252 in just 4:40.
O’Malley has ended up going the distance just once in the past 9 fights, with 7 bouts ending via KO/TKO, with the 1 loss, he had a split-decision win over Petr Yan at UFC 280, and a no contest at UFC 276 against Pedro Munhoz.
Vera topped Munhoz at UFC 292 in a unanimous-decision win, bouncing back from a split-decision loss to Cory Sandhagen in the fight night main event in late March 2023. He had ended up going the distance in 5 of his past 7 fights.
O’Malley holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over Vera, and he has a 7.25-to-4.37 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. “Suga” is quite accurate with those strikes, too, hitting at a 61.60% clip, while Vera lands 53.56% of his significant strikes. Vera has the 0.95-to-0.43 submission average advantage.
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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): O’Malley -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Vera +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)
UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
O’Malley (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive. He should be able to get the job done in this rematch, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a trilogy.
While the Ecudoran fighter Vera (+220) could have quite an enthusiastic crowd in Miami, it’s unlikely he is able to catch O’Malley with a big punch and KO/TKO again. In fact, it’s more likely the champ returns the favor.
Take O’MALLEY VIA KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+225) at plus-money on the 5-way line.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (+120) at plus-money is a solid play, and it is a little more of a value than NO: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (+100), although you do get 90 more seconds of wiggle room for a small price.
While Vera had ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights, and 5 of his previous 7 bouts, he had a finish against O’Malley in the 1st fight. And O’Malley hasn’t involved the judges in 8 of his past 9 outings.
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