Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Tuesday, December 9

Prop bet #1: Noah's downward arc

In the evening portion of Saturday’s NHL slate, the New York Islanders host the Los Angeles Kings in a matchup where we could see some stellar goaltending. Specifically, I expect to see a lot of struggles from New York offensively with Cam Talbot expected to start between the pipes for Los Angeles.

One of the Vezina Trophy favorites through the first quarter of the campaign, Talbot is 12-4-1 with a stellar .933 SV% and 1.84 GAA. He has been completely dialed in recently, unwilling to allow more than two goals in every start since November 11.

Talbot is 5-1 over that span with a commanding .954 SV% and 1.18 GAA. This success is likely to continue against the Islanders, a team he is 8-3 against through 13 career starts with a .923 SV% and 2.48 GAA.

While I have full faith in Talbot’s abilities as an isolated variable, his tremendous success is also a product of the strong two-way play in front of him. At 5-on-5, the Kings rank first in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

That brings us to Noah Dobson odds; the first of two New York skaters we should look to fade in this contest. Dobson hasn’t scored a goal since November 16, but he has racked up plenty of assists since then.

However, it will not be as easy to find those passing lanes against a Los Angeles lineup that suffocates opposing teams whenever they get in the zone. It’s been that way for a few years now, so it’s not shocking that Dobson has failed to record a point in four of his six career outings against the Kings.

Noah Dobson prop: Under 0.5 points (+110 at SIA)

Prop bet #2: You don't know Bo

Next up with the Islanders, we'll be fading Bo Horvat odds. He’s been hot lately, but now is the time to sell high on a guy who is outperforming his metrics.

In all situations, Horvat ranks second among New York forwards in goals scored above expected, which is due to even-out as the season progresses. This expected regression is likely to occur against Los Angeles and Talbot, which is perhaps the best defensive/goaltender combination in the league this season.

On top of that, Horvat has failed to record a point in each of his past three games against the Kings. Finally, there is some solid correlation here with the Dobson play above as both guys skate together on New York’s power play unit.

The problem there is that Los Angeles ranks ninth in the league in penalty minutes per game and second in penalty kill percentage.

Bo Horvat prop: Under 0.5 points (+105 at SIA)

Prop bet #3: Anthony's song

Sticking with the Islanders theme, we are going to back their former first-round pick to collect his first point as a member of the Chicago Blackhawks. Look, the Hawks are obviously terrible, but almost all of their success this season has predictably come as a product of Connor Bedard’s goal-scoring or playmaking.

Due to the Corey Perry situation, Chicago brought in Beauvillier from Vancouver to give Bedard and Phillipp Kurashev some help on the first line. That means we are catching plus-money on Anthony Beauvillier odds, while getting first-line opportunities.

Since joining Chicago, Beauvillier’s average time-on-ice has increased by almost two minutes, and his shots on goal per game have also been more consistent. Even if Beauvillier does absolutely nothing in this game, he can still luck into a point given that Bedard and Kurashev are both just south of the point-per-game mark.

Now, going against goaltender Jordan Binnington is obviously the main concern in backing any Blackhawks player to find the points column. With that said, he just allowed five goals in his last start and has given up three or more in six of his past eight outings.

That trend is more of an indictment on St. Louis’ blue line, which is even worse than Chicago’s and ranks second-to-last in the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

Anthony Beauvillier prop: Over 0.5 points (+120)