NHL

Hurricanes vs Rangers NHL Playoffs Series Odds, Picks & Preview

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6m ago

May 03, 2024 / 5864 Views

Evan Walker

The New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes meet in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs after the two Metropolitan Division rivals made short work of their opening-round opponents.

New York won two of the three meetings between the two clubs during the regular season, and the Rangers also won their most recent postseason series in Round 2 of the 2022 playoffs. Still, it’s the Canes trading as the betting favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Here are my NHL picks for this Round 2 matchup.

All odds courtesy of BET99.

Hurricanes vs Rangers series odds

	Market
Hurricanes (-140)	To win	Rangers (+115)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+130)	Handicap	Rangers +1.5 (-160)

Despite the New York Rangers having home-ice advantage in Round 2, it’s the Carolina Hurricanes trading as the betting favorite to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. As noted, N.Y. won two of three Games during the regular season and eliminated Carolina in a seven-Game series in Round 2 of the 2022 postseason.

Hurricanes vs Rangers series preview

Hurricanes statistical breakdown

	Regular Season	Since All-Star break	Since Trade Deadline
CF%	59.6% (1st)	58.9% (1st)	59.1% (1st)
Adjusted CF%	60.3% (1st)	60.2% (1st)	60.5% (1st)
GF%	53.7% (9th)	57.1% (5th)	54.7% (9th)
xGF%	56.9% (2nd)	58.6% (1st)	59.4% (1st)
Adjusted xGF%	57.5% (1st)	59.5% (1st)	60.3% (1st)
Team SH%	7.9% (25th)	7.6% (28th)	7.4% (26th)
Team SV%	.912 (26th)	.928 (5th)	.918 (13th)
PDO	99.1 (26th)	100.4 (16th)	99.2 (24th)
PP%	26.9% (2nd)	25% (9th)	28.6% (4th)
PK%	86.4% (1st)	89.6% (1st)	93.1% (1st)

Carolina is the favorite to win this series because of these analytics. The Canes are relentless while dominating 5-on-5 possession, and they were also elite on both special teams.

Additionally, everything Carolina does is largely sustainable, and the Hurricanes ranking 26th in PDO during the regular season also suggests there’s even room for improvement. I also chalk up the poor team shooting percentage to the sheer volume of shots and attempts they register.

I also expect the Hurricanes to tidy up their shorthanded play after dipping to a 72.7 penalty-kill percentage against the New York Islanders in Round 1. Finally, the biggest question mark for Carolina is in goal, but the Hurricanes will be incredibly difficult to beat if they continue to receive quality goaltending.

Rangers statistical breakdown

	Regular Season	Since All-Star break	Since Trade Deadline
CF%	50.1% (19th)	49.7% (18th)	52.9% (9th)
Adjusted CF%	50.5% (17th)	50.0% (17th)	53.0% (10th)
GF%	50.2% (16th)	52.3% (13th)	50.6% (19th)
xGF%	49.0% (22nd)	47.2% (25th)	51.8% (12th)
Adjusted xGF%	49.3% (20th)	47.3% (25th)	51.7% (12th)
Team SH%	8.4% (19th)	8.7% (18th)	8.7% (17th)
Team SV%	.914 (12th)	.925 (8th)	.908 (21st)
PDO	99.9 (19th)	101.1 (10th)	99.5 (21st)
PP%	26.4% (3rd)	25.3% (7th)	31.4% (1st)
PK%	84.5% (3rd)	87.1% (2nd)	88.9% (3rd)

Timely scoring paired with excellent goaltending and special teams paved the way to the Presidents' Trophy for the New York Rangers. I consider the Blueshirts a paper contender because of their middling underlying numbers at 5-on-5, but they have the star power to mitigate it. Especially if the highlighted formula of timely scoring, excellent goaltending, and strong special-teams play continue to be their calling card.

My concern is there isn’t much margin for error in New York's recipe for success. The special teams need to hold up, and No. 1 goalie Igor Shesterkin will need to continue standing tall.

Unfortunately, that margin for error will be razor-thin against Carolina in Round 2.

All statistics are at five-on-five except power-play percentage and penalty-kill percentage.

Pet="">

Hurricanes vs Rangers series props

Hurricanes vs Rangers correct score odds

Team	To win 4-0	To win 4-1	To win 4-2	To win 4-3
Hurricanes	+900	+550	+400	+500
Rangers	+1,500	+700	+600	+475

Pick: Hurricanes to win 4-2 (+400 at BET99)

As long as the Hurricanes receive serviceable goaltending from No. 1 Frederik Andersen and/or backup Pyotr Kochetkov, this is their series to win. Carolina has the scoring depth to create on-ice mismatches against the top-heavy New York lineup, and Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind'Amour has the lineup flexibility to mix and match his lines to make in-game adjustments and changes throughout the series.

Additionally, I don’t anticipate either team having a major special-teams advantage, so the edge the Hurricanes have at 5-on-5 will be the difference in the series.

Hurricanes vs Rangers series best bet

Pick: Hurricanes to win series (-140 at BET99)

Building on the noted 5-on-5 edge, I’m anticipating the Hurricanes being able to limit the quality-scoring chances the Rangers generate.

In addition to driving possession with a league-best Corsi For percentage, Carolina also allowed the third-fewest expected goals (2.23) and fewest high-danger scoring chances (9.51) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during the regular season. The Hurricanes allowed similar 2.3 and 9.23 marks through five games against the Islanders in Round 1, too.