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The three best-value MLB futures wagers to make at the all-star break | Pickswise

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The All-Star Game has come and gone which means the second half of the season is on deck. I’m heading into the second half on a high note as I went 5-0 for a +4.77 unit profit on my All-Star Game picks here at Pickswise. But before we start the final push of the regular season, I’ve made 3 futures bets (all plus odds I may add) to lock in before Friday’s slate of games. Last season when I did this, I went 2-1 with one pick coming up just short of the goal. But this year is different because I absolutely love each and every one of these picks so much that I’m placing 1 unit on each bet. I’m getting excited just thinking about these picks, but I’ll stop so you can start reading. Enjoy!

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Atlanta Braves to win the National League (+160)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Let’s be honest, the Braves are in a league of their own this season. They came into Opening Day with the 2nd-shortest odds to win the World Series at +750, and I locked them in as my preseason pick to win it all. We’re a little over halfway into the season, and Atlanta’s odds have shrunk by more than half to +330. It’s pretty easy to see why – they’re incredible at everything. On offense, they rank 2nd in runs per game, batting average, on-base percentage and wRC+ while ranking 1st in slugging percentage, OPS and ISO. On the mound, the Braves starting rotation ranks 7th in ERA and 8th in FIP, while the bullpen ranks 3rd in ERA, 1st in FIP and 7th in opponent batting average. Atlanta’s starting rotation marks get even more impressive when considering that their ace has made only 5 starts this season and has been sidelined since the beginning of May. But that won’t be the case for much longer as Max Fried has begun his rehab assignments and should be back in Atlanta soon.

The bottom line is that this team is the best in all of baseball, and getting them to win the National League at plus odds is theft in broad daylight. The only teams I can see challenging the Braves for the World Series are the Rays, Dodgers, Orioles, Rangers, Blue Jays and Astros, and only the Dodgers are in the National League from that list. That means Atlanta’s greatest challenge will be against the American League, so why not eliminate the risks and take them to win the National League pennant instead? In a 7-game series, I don’t see any National League team being able to take 3 games from the Braves – let alone 4!

Here’s the icing on the cake – the Braves have the 8th easiest schedule in the second half of the season. Of Atlanta’s 73 games remaining, the average winning percentage of their opponents is .491. Ready for the closing argument? Only 7 teams have an easier second-half schedule, and 6 of the 7 teams are in the American League. The one outlier is the Chicago Cubs, who are going to finish well below .500. The Braves have the best lineup, an excellent pitching staff and the 2nd easiest second-half schedule in the National League. At plus odds, this is a steal.

New York Yankees not to make the MLB playoffs (+130)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Can we all agree that the Yankees aren’t a good baseball team without Aaron Judge? The Captain is the heart and soul of the Yankees, and the stats back it up. They are 30-19 with Judge on the field but 19-23 with him on the bench. That’s a huge difference for just a single player, but when that player is hitting .291 with a 1.078 OPS and a 2.3 WAR in just 49 games, he becomes necessary to win. However, have no fear Yankees fans, Judge is expected back this season! But here’s the thing – nobody knows when. A rumor went around that Judge could be back in the first few weeks after the All-Star Game, but Aaron Boone and the Yankees have been quiet, almost too quiet, about the situation. They won’t share when they expect Judge to start rehab assignments or how he’s feeling, and that gives me the hint that they truly don’t know when he can come back.

Judge was voted to be an All-Star starter in this year’s Midsummer Classic in Seattle, but he wasn’t able to play due to his toe injury. But Judge didn’t even go to Seattle to be honored, he stayed home and shared this message on Twitter: “I plan to take this time to heal and rehab so I can get back on the field for my team and all of you.” In my opinion, Judge won’t take the field at Yankee Stadium until the end of August at the absolute earliest. Besides having to overcome the absence of their star player and Captain, the Yankees need to start winning – and fast. New York went into the all-star break 4th in the AL East, 8.0 Games behind the Rays. So let’s break down what they would need to do to earn a postseason berth. One, they win the division. That would require them to leapfrog the Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays in the AL East, which seems rather far-fetched, and Fangraphs agrees as they give New York a 4.7% chance to win the division.

Second, the Yankees earn one of 3 Wild Card spots. This is New York’s only realistic chance of making it to the postseason, but even then, the Yankees have a lot of comPetition in front of them. The Orioles and Blue Jays both have higher chances of earning a Wild Card spot (61.7% and 61.6%) compared to the Yankees (51.1%). If Baltimore and Toronto clinch a spot, that leaves one spot open, but we haven’t mentioned the AL West yet. The Rangers and Astros will be in a dogfight for the division title for the entire second half of the season, and whichever team doesn’t win is very likely going to get the final spot. That leaves the Yankees on the outside looking in at this year’s postseason.

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Chicago White Sox to finish 4th in AL Central (+125)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

One of the worst preseason futures bets I’ve ever placed was on this team to win over 83 games this season. It took about two weeks into the season to realize I had made a terrible mistake. To put it gently, the White Sox are absolutely awful. Chicago is 38-54 at the break and is only expected to get worse. Their front office has made it very clear that they will be sellers at the trade deadline, so I expect Tim Anderson, Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Mike Clevinger to all be shopped before the deadline. I doubt all 5 players will get moved, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Anderson, Cease and Giolito go. All 3 players seem very aware that they could be traded, and Anderson seems ready to go by the way he’s been playing and acting recently. Chicago would also love to unload Yoan Moncada somewhere, but with his contract and strikeout rate, that seems less likely. In summary, it’s going to be a firesale in the South Side of Chicago, and they’re going to do everything they can to rebuild for the future – including losing.

In the AL Central, the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians are throwing very soft punches at each other for the division title. Both teams are expected to end the season around .500, which is insane to think that a .500 team could win a division title. That leaves the White Sox with the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals for the final 3 spots in the division, but the Royals have the 5th spot all but locked up at this point. Kansas City is projected to win just 56 games – 1 better than the A’s. We’re down to the White Sox and Tigers for the 3rd and 4th spots, and there’s a massive difference between these two teams.

The White Sox are ready to sell everybody and tank for a better draft pick as they have their eyes already set on 2024. However, the Tigers went into the break just 5.5 games back of the division lead and have their sights set on a Cinderella second half of the season to launch them into the division title hunt. Fortunately for the Tigers, they have the 3rd-easiest schedule in the second half of the season, which includes 19 games against the Athletics, Royals, White Sox and Pirates. Although the Tigers and White Sox may have a similar record, they have completely different mindsets heading into the second half. The Sox should end their 2023 campaign in 4th place in the division.

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