NBA Heat vs Celtics Predictions, Odds, Picks & Best Bets | Pickswise

The Miami Heat have defied expectations to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. They started the 2023 NBA Playoffs as the #8 seed after losing their first game in the play-in tournament against Atlanta, before beating Chicago to squeeze into the field for the first ronud. They have not looked back since, though, knocking out #1 seed the Milwaukee Bucks in just 5 games before seeing off #5 seed the New York Knicks 4-2.

Now, the Heat need to raise their game again for a showdown against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics have been made to fight to get this far, beating the Hawks in 6 games before a 7-game battle against the 76ers, in which they rallied after trailing 3-2. Let’s take a look at the odds, betting lines and our expert’s predictions.

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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics spread, odds & betting lines

Point spread: Heat +8; Celtics -8
Total points over/under: 211 points
Money line odds: Heat +300; Celtics -365

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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics expert picks

Heat vs Celtics point spread pick: Heat +8 (-105)

The Boston Celtics just played a grueling series against the Philadelphia 76ers but despite that matchup going the distance, Game 7 looked like a cakewalk for Boston as Jayson Tatum hunted the regular-season MVP and popped off for a record-setting 51 points in a blowout. Boston displayed why they are arguably the best shot-creating offense in the NBA and why they are heavily favored in this series. However, the amount by which the Miami Heat are being downplayed for this game is disrespectful.

Miami has already made History on the way to this Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat made the Milwaukee Bucks the first #1 seed in NBA History not to win even 2 playoff Games. Then they took care of Business easily against the New York Knicks despite Jimmy Butler dealing with an ankle injury and remaining fairly passive as a scorer over the last 2 Games of that series, and the team shooting just 31% from deep despite getting primarily open looks for 6 Games. Both of these points are keys to why the line for Game 1 is set as it is and why that shouldn’t be the case.

For starters, Butler should be much more aggressive in this revenge spot from the get-go, knowing that he must play like he did in the first round to give his team a shot. He knew that he did not need to do so to beat the Knicks and used it as an opportunity to facilitate and get past New York. Additionally, Miami’s 3-point shooting should see positive regression after a rough go from beyond the arc in the second round. Boston is about to face its toughest matchup yet in the NBA playoffs in the defensive scheme of head coach Erik Spoelstra. The Celtics offense has gone cold often during the season when seeing a zone defense and that was on full display when Philadelphia showed them zone in their playoff series. Boston’s dynamic duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will also have to deal with the defense of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and secret weapon off the bench, Haywood Highsmith, who has held Tatum to 2-14 from the field on 53 partial possessions this season.

This spread is too much with the extra rest for Miami and the Heat should continue to perform well in dogfights on the road in the playoffs. Miami is a league-best 8-3 against the spread in the playoffs and Boston is just 9-10 against the spread this season on 2-3 days of rest and 5-8 against the spread since the All-Star break when favored by at least 8 points.

Be sure to check out our full Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics predictions

Heat vs Celtics over/under total pick: Over 211 (-110)

A key to this series will be the aggressive offensive attack from the Miami Heat and their likely positive regression when shooting. On the other end of the court, expect Miami to force the ball out of the hands of the generational talent that is Jayson Tatum and force the Celtics’ role players to make shots. In Game 7 against the 76ers, Celtics players other than Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to go 6-for-17 from 3. Expect the Heat to force higher volume and more pace out of them.

In the teams’ 2 head-to-head season meetings when Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tatum and Brown all played, Boston took a 111-104 road win and Miami claimed a 120-116 win. Given how both offenses are in rhythm entering this series, even with Miami missing reigning Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro, this line is clearly just too low. I’m backing the offenses in Game 1.

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