Today’s Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions for NBA Finals Game 4, Friday 6/14 | Pickswise

We are entering what could be the final Game of the 2023-24 NBA season; it has been a long but successful ride on the way to the NBA Finals here at Pickswise. This season, the author is 63-44 for a +13.5% ROI on the season with player props in this article series. These are his favorite NBA player prop bets for Game 4 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks.

Derrick White (BOS) 1st quarter Over 3.5 points (+122)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

Derrick White has had uncharacteristically slow starts in the scoring department in these NBA Finals but that gives us an opportunity to buy low at a ludicrous number and price. The Mavericks don’t have the ability at this point to adjust in a way to stop all the Celtics’ shooters, especially after seeing Jayson Tatum step it up last game as a scorer. In addition, the Luka Dončić-Kyrie Irving duo is simply not physically imposing enough to stop Boston from crashing the boards with ease.

Enter—a wild line for White, who averaged 4.1 points per 9 minutes in the first quarter this season without Kristaps Porziņģis (up to 4.7 in the playoffs). In Game 3, his first with Porziņģis inactive in the series, he saw three field goal attempts in the first quarter, all of which were either open or wide open three-pointers, per NBA Stats. For reference, on such attempts on the road in the first quarter in the entirety of the playoffs, he has shot 45.7%.

We are projecting 4.5 points in this spot, making this plus-money snag a steal.

Derrick Jones Jr. (DAL) Over 5.5 points (-121)

Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

Derrick Jones Jr. has mostly been a non-factor offensively in the NBA playoffs but this line has gone way too far—in the one game where he actively saw involvement in the offense, he cleared his 7.5 points line with ease (Game 2). Boston continues to be a good matchup for him to produce as they struggle defensively in transition and have no qualms leaving him wide open to spot up from deep. This becomes a bet on minutes, because if we project for normal playing time, this line should be 9.5.

In Game 3, Dallas went on their big run with Josh Green in the game and then with Luka Dončić fouling out, they needed some kind of shooting so they tried their hand at Tim Hardaway Jr. That left Jones out of the picture in an anomaly sequence of events. He’s the best isolation defender on the team and if they close the game without him, Boston may as well pop the bottles mid-game. Jones should be back to a normal full-game role so we will bite on the lowest number we have seen on his points prop since he became a starter for the Mavericks.