NBA First Basket Props Today 5/17 - Expert Picks & Best Bets | Pickswise

I was very close to landing my +1200 odds First Basket Scorer prediction in last night’s Lakers vs Nuggets Game, but Austin Reaves couldn’t connect on his three-point shot. That shouldn’t discourage us from having another go at it in tonight’s Game 1 of Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics.

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Let’s take a look at my bet now!

Heat vs Celtics: Jaylen Brown (+440)

My dilemma was between Tatum and Brown for this bet, as both of them averaged over 30 points per Game vs Miami during the regular season, plus each of them scored the first basket once in those Games. Al Horford did win 2 of 3 opening tips vs Bam Adebayo in Games in which Robert Williams was absent. The big man is now back and has a 91% opening tip win rate, so I really like his chances to grab the opening possessions for the Celtics here. Boston has relied on Brown quite a lot during this postseason run, he has scored the opening bucket for them in 6 of 13 Games, edging out Tatum who has done it 5 times. Brown was also a lot more efficient in those regular season Games vs Miami – 10.6% better from the field, 1.3% better from three and 3.6% better from the free-throw line. If we look at a larger sample size over the last 2 seasons, Boston has scored the first basket in 10 of 14 Games vs the Heat. With 39% of Miami’s first baskets allowed coming from the SG and SF positions, I feel like backing Brown is a solid bet in this one.

Check out our full Game preview for Game 1 of Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

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