NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, May 16 from Pickswise's Mark Zinno

The Western Conference Finals are here, and the series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers is one of the most intriguing of the entire playoffs. I’ll be targeting the Nuggets and the over for Tuesday’s Game 1 contest, so without further ado, I’ll get into the reasoning behind those picks.

Denver Nuggets -6 over Los Angeles Lakers (-110)

The Nuggets and Lakers play Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in Denver as the Nuggets opened as 5-point favorite over LeBron James and company. That line is now Denver -6 and I would expect as we get closer to tip-off, we may see more money in on the Nuggets who have been exceptional at home this season. Including playoffs, they are 40-7 at home straight up and have gone 30-16-1 against the spread. Los Angeles is just 22-25 straight up away from their home court and 21-25-1 against the number. These teams haven’t met in the regular season since January 9th. Denver won both games on their home court in convincing fashion. They shot better from the field, better from three and dominated the boards. The formula seems pretty easy here for the Nuggets.

The Lakers are coming off an emotional series win over Golden State and will have to play this first game at altitude. LeBron James and Anthony Davis only played in Denver in the first meeting this season and it was part of the Lakers disastrous 2-10 start. They had 19 and 22 points, respectively. Denver matches up well with the Lakers inside and shouldn’t have to worry too much about Los Angeles 33% three-point shooting in the playoffs. I still think Denver’s defense is underrated and they won’t have to content with a combination of players like Kevin Durant and Devin Booker going off for a combined 70-plus points in any game in this series. If Denver gets a big lead by the middle-to-late 3rd quarter, I can see the Lakers pulling back and saving for the rest of a long series. Unless Los Angeles shoots better than 50% from the field, I don’t think they keep this close. In fact, the Lakers only won one playoff game where they shot less than 45% and only lost one playoff game where they shot better than 43%. Lay the points with Denver.

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Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Over 223 (-110)

In this series, it feels like Denver wins will go over and Lakers wins will stay under. The Nuggets are averaging 115 points per Game this post season and shooting 49% from the field. Scoring isn’t a problem for them against most defenses. The Lakers are only allowing 107 points per Game on 42% shooting and have been great on the perimeter with opponents shooting just 33% from beyond the arc. The Lakers would rather play lower scoring Games because they are limited in three-point shooting. Denver has the ability to play up tempo if needed, but I think their defense is underrated as well.

In the previous series against Phoenix, the lowest total for any game was 225.5. I made this total a little higher than that because Denver can fill it up fast. Part of the reason this total is low is because the Lakers are inefficient on the offensive end. But the question is can they get to that 105-point range. I think they can, and Denver does the rest. Denver can get to 120 points on their own making this over really easy. My biggest worry is a blowout scenario when one team completely takes their foot off the gas pedal late in the game and pace slows something terrible. If it’s a closer game, and I have the Nuggets covering the spread, this goes over as well. I’ll roll with the over 223 in this one.

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