MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 15 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

It’s a smaller day in baseball with only 10 Games taking place, but the day starts in Baltimore with an AL East duel between the Blue Jays and Orioles and ends with a 10:10 first pitch in SoCal between the White Sox and Dodgers.

Today, I am looking at a first 5 innings bet, a team total and an underdog on the money line, so let’s get into the reasoning behind those picks. Remember to also check out our MLB predictions for all of Thursday’s slate.

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Atlanta Braves F5 -0.5 (-155) over Colorado Rockies

The Braves return home after their series in Detroit to welcome the Rockies for a 4-game weekend series. Atlanta will start AJ Smith-Shawver, who is making just his 2nd ever start and 3rd appearance since joining the big leagues. Smith-Shawver has yet to allow an earned run in 7.2 innings. His last start was at home against the Nationals in which he lasted 5.1 innings and allowed just 3 hits. Colorado’s offense is obviously much worse on the road because they’ve hit the 3rd-fewest home runs this season on the road against right-handed pitching with 17. Their slugging percentage and wRC+ are 25th against righties on the road as well.

Lastly, their walk rate is 22nd. Kyle Freeland takes the ball for Colorado, and normally, he’s a pitcher I would back, but not against Atlanta as they are one of the best hitting teams against lefties this season. Furthermore, Freeland is actually better at Coors Field this season than on the road. The Braves have the 2nd best batting average and wRC+ against lefties this season and the highest OPS. Freeland is also allowing opposing hitters to bat .276 against him the first time through the order and lead-off batters to hit .385 with .990 OPS! Ronald Acuña may have a day. The Braves bullpen was overworked yesterday with a double-header so we will stick with the Braves on the run-line in the first 5 innings.

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Houston Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (-115)

The Nationals and Astros wrap up their 3-Game set in Houston. The Astros won the first 2 with a combined 17 hits and 6 home runs. I expect that to continue as Astros hit left-handed pitching very well, especially at home where they are 7th in slugging, OPS and wRC+. Houston has also scored the 4th most runs at home this season against left-handers. Lastly, the Astros have given starter Cristian Javier the 3rd-highest run support per Game of any pitcher in MLB at 7 runs per Game.

MacKenzie Gore starts for the Nationals. Gore’s ERA is over 4 and his WHIP is 1.39. He’s been banged around in his last 2 starts against potent lineups like the Phillies and Braves, giving up 8 earned runs, 13 hits in 11 innings. He’s also allowed at least 1 home run in 5 consecutive starts. Gore’s strikeout rate is 4th best in the majors, but the Astros have the 4th lowest K-percentage at home against lefties this season, hopefully negating the best weapon Gore has. I don’t like playing against teams that are trying to avoid being swept, but the Astros offense should do enough to score over 4.5 runs in this game, especially with a bad Nationals bullpen that has the 4th highest ERA and has allowed the 3rd most home runs this season.

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Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+135) over Chicago Cubs

The Pirates will try to avoid being swept in Chicago as they face the Cubs. It won’t be easy as the Cubs will start Marcus Stroman. Stroman has been on fire as of late as he’s lasted at least 6 innings and allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts. However, Stroman has received some of the worst run support in the majors. Of qualifying pitchers who have made at least 10 starts, Stroman has the 7th lowest support getting just 3.3 runs per game.

Pittsburgh sends Johan Oviedo to the mound. His numbers aren’t great, and most alarming is the 20 walks he’s allowed on the road in 29.1 innings pitched. But Oviedo has a solid track record against the Cubs because in 3 appearances last year, he had a 2.63 ERA over 13.2 innings. I don’t trust the Cubs lineup in this spot either, and oddsmakers are also giving a much lower price on Pittsburgh than expected, especially against an ace like Stroman. Both of these bullpens are suspect, but I’ll take the Pirates on the money line at plus money to steal one on the road unexpectedly.

Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for Thursday

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