Golf picks: Wells Fargo Championship best bets | Pickswise

Last year at the Mexico Open it was a race to the finish line between eventual champion Jon Rahm and Tony Finau. History repeated itself this year — almost — as Finau lifted the trophy for his 6th PGA Tour victory. Hours after winning, he was back out on Vidanta Vallarta’s par-3 course caddying for his kids, which is quite possibly my favorite storyline from Sunday.   

Brandon Wu finished 3rd and cashed in my bet of a top 10 at +500. 

This week we move to Charlotte for the Wells Fargo Championship. This is another designated event, meaning a stellar field will play for a share of the $20 million purse. Quail Hollow is a big, iconic venue and last year hosted the Presidents Cup. Due to this, the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship moved to Potomac but returns to its usual spot this year, which is no doubt a welcome move for all who know and love this course. Quail also hosted the PGA Championship in 2017, which was won by Justin Thomas.

JT will be teeing it up this week, alongside another 20 of the OWGR top 30 (notables including Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are skipping). With the world No 1 and No 2 out of action, Rory McIlroy is the highest-ranked player this week. Past champions at this venue also include Max Homa, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, James Hahn, J.B. Holmes and Lucas Glover. This is where Homa got his debut victory on the tour back in 2019. He also won the tournament last year.

Speaking of first wins, McIlroy got his at Quail back in 2010 and has won this tournament twice since then, the last being in 2021, making him the only 3-time champion here. He also set the course record twice.

I’ll be looking at guys who have played Quail well before — in the Wells Fargo, the PGA and in last year’s Presidents Cup.

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Quail Hollow Club: What you need to know

Being a major championship venue tells us a lot about Quail Hollow (it hosted the PGA Championship in 2017 and will, once again, in 2025). This old dairy farm is a long course measuring 7,538 yards, and in 2021 served as the 5th-toughest course on tour.

The fairways are narrow and the rough is always tough to play from. Greens in reg percentages are always down on this course. With these large, undulated greens, hitting the right spot will be key — therefore good approach and proximity stats will be important this week. Length off the tee will help, but the shorter hitters can prevail here — especially those who are excellent with their long irons and perform well on fast Bermuda greens.

Holes 16, 17 and 18 are known as ”The Green Mile” and form one of Golf’s most challenging closing stretches. The tiny stream on 18 can absolutely destroy a round! 

As I said above, too, I do like good course history here.

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Knox’s Knockout Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2300 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

After winning the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago, then playing well at the Zurich Classic alongside his brother Alex, Matt Fitzpatrick is playing in the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow for the first time. However, he did finish 2nd in this tournament last year when it was held at TPC Potomac. This is a major venue and, even though the setup will be easier than when it hosts the PGA Championship, a major champion should feel relatively at home on a course like this one. I don’t doubt the Englishman will be in the upper part of the leaderboard this week, even though the course isn’t overly familiar to him. 

Jason Day (+2800 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

I shall continue to pick Day until he wins! Combined with his excellent season of golf, featuring 7 top-20 finishes in 8 starts, the Aussie has only ever finished outside the top 25 at Quail Hollow once. In his 5 appearances in this tournament, he has a win (2018) and 1 additional top-10 showing. Sitting at 6th in total strokes gained for the season, as well as 13th in putting and 24th in approach, shows how solid his game is and how well suited it is for this course.

Keith Mitchell (+7000 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

I’m looking at another guy who played well here the last time the tournament was held at this course. Mitchell finished T3 after falling away a little during Sunday, but he really put together some great rounds — including a 66 on Saturday. Add that to his T8 finish here in 2019 and you have a guy who could really pose a threat this week. Mitchell has 3 top-6 finishes this season, and his off-the-tee/ball-striking stats have been the strength of his game. He is 1st in total driving on tour and 6th off the tee, and this classic, prestigious golf course seems like an excellent fit for “Cashmere Keith.”

MacKenzie Hughes (+22000 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Sometimes a little bit of disappointment can go a long way in motivating you. That seemed to be the case for Hughes, who wasn’t picked for the Presidents Cup International team last year at Quail Hollow, a course that’s just down the road from his home in Charlotte. The Canadian missed out on a pick and clearly used that to fuel his fire, winning the Sanderson Farms Championship the following week. Maybe he has a little something to prove? He doesn’t have a great track record here (4 of 5 missed cuts) and he’ll need to have a superb week of ball striking, but I’ll take him as a longshot at these odds.

Wells Fargo Championship Prop Bets

Si Woo Kim top-5 finish (+1600 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Si Woo had a standout performance for the International side at the Presidents Cup last year, defeating Thomas in the Sunday singles. He hasn’t played in this tournament (at this course) since 2016, but after his performance in September I’m sure he’s pumped up for this one. I like him to have a good week, especially with his consistent off-the-tee play.

Gary Woodland top-10 finish (+750 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Woodland has good history around Quail Hollow, finishing within the top 25 5 times (one of which being in the PGA Championship). In 2021 he finished solo 5th and comes to this elevated event with some good play behind him of late. Woodland gains strokes off the tee pretty much every week he plays, plus his length will be advantageous. His approach game has been trending, gaining almost 3.5 strokes over his last 3 tournaments. 

Joel Dahmen top-10 finish (+900 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

That old saying of “horses for courses” seems to ring true for Dahmen. In his 4 appearances at this course he has finished within the top- 8 on 3 occasions, 1 of which was runner-up in ’19. His T11 at the Zurich hopefully shows an up-turn in his Game, too.

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