Expert MLB best bets, picks and predictions today, 6/17 | Pickswise

Welcome to the weekend in Major League Baseball! It’s a huge day with action starting at 2:10 PM in Minnesota and ending with a 10:10 PM first pitch between the Guardians and Diamondbacks in Arizona. Before we get into today’s picks, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks.

Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Saturday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s Games.

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New York Mets F5 -0.5 (-114) over St. Louis Cardinals

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

I have been on the fade-the-Adam-Wainwright train for some time now, and you have the opportunity to hop on now! The 41-year-old will make his 8th start of the season on Saturday afternoon at Citi Field, and although the Mets don’t possess the greatest offense in baseball, they should be able to do enough to score against Wainwright. The longtime Cardinal has a 5.79 ERA paired with a 6.15 xERA in 37.1 innings, and his advanced metrics should worry St. Louis fans. He ranks in the 1st percentile in whiff rate, 2nd percentile in xBA, 3rd percentile in strikeout rate and 8th percentile in xSLG, among others. He’s allowed at least 3 runs in every single start this season, and if New York can keep the trend going, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be leading after 5 innings by multiple runs.

Opposing the 18-year veteran is the rookie Kodai Senga which creates a huge pitching mismatch. Senga was fabulous in May with a 2.79 ERA and started to find comfort in the pitcher-friendly park of Citi Field. However, he got rocked by the Blue Jays at the beginning of June. He was shelled for 4 runs on 4 hits, including 5 walks, and did not make it out of the 3rd inning. However, that outing was the first time that Senga was starting on 4 days of rest. Normally, the Japanese sensation starts on 5 or 6 days of rest as he acclimates to the MLB Lifestyle, but the Mets pushed him on 4 days of rest and paid the price. But then, on his normal 5 days of rest in his next start, Senga threw 7 innings and did not allow an earned run while giving up just 2 hits. Today’s start will be on 6 days of rest, and in 3 outings with at least 6 days of rest this season, Senga has a 2.20 ERA, and the Mets are 2-1 on the first 5 innings run line.

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Los Angeles Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-122) over San Francisco Giants

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

I’m contemplating starting a Bobby Miller fan club because I absolutely love this kid. The 24-year-old has 4 MLB starts under his belt and has allowed 2 runs and 12 hits along with 23 strikeouts in 23 innings. Miller seems like the real deal to me as his advanced metrics back up his incredible start to his MLB career since his xBA sits at .204 and his wOBA is an absurd .199. It’s not like he’s a two-pitch pitcher like Spencer Strider either because he relies on a sinker, slider and changeup for the majority of pitches, but he’s not afraid to drop a curveball in there from time to time either. He’s gone 6 innings in his last 3 starts, which is exactly what I’m looking for because I want this bet to only include Miller and Alex Wood. I don’t want to involve either bullpen because both arms barns are unpredictable and gassed after last night.

This is a spot I’ve been waiting to exploit for some time. Since Opening Day, the Dodgers have crushed right-handed pitching. They rank 4th in baseball in wRC+ against right-handers, but recently, they’ve switched. In the last 30 days, Los Angeles ranks 1st in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ISO, OPS and wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They also have the 2nd highest walk rate, so they’ve been getting baserunners from hits and free passes. On Saturday night, the former Dodger Alex Wood will take the mound for the Giants. Wood called Dodger Stadium home for about 5 seasons and was solid in his time for Los Angeles. However, now at 32 years old, Wood hasn’t been as sharp. He had a 6.30 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 5 games in June and suffered a back injury in his last start of the month. That injury sidelined him for several weeks, but after a pair of mediocre rehab starts, the Giants are bringing him back up for Saturday’s game. Today’s outing is like throwing Wood into the deep end because the Dodgers lineup has had a lot of success against the lefty in their careers – especially Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Jason Heyward and J.D. Martinez. The bottom line is Miller is the far better pitcher in this matchup, and with the way Los Angeles has swung the bat against lefties recently, I’m confident backing the home team by the first 5 innings run line.

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