College Football Bowl Games best bets, odds and game picks including Arizona vs Oklahoma for Thursday, 12/28

After a long and grueling regular season, the college Football postseason is finally here. I’ve gone 5-1 in these bowl season columns so far — bringing me to 30-20 (60%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that some regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we’re off to a great start in bowl season, so let’s keep that momentum going!

With the holiday season behind us, the third full week of Bowl season is here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including a ton of fun games at the Group of 5 and Power 5 level. With Thursday’s games rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bet for the trio of games at our disposal. And remember, you can check out all of our NCAAF predictions for picks on all of the action.

Arizona Wildcats -2.5 over Oklahoma Sooners (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Arizona -3.

The Valero Alamo Bowl should be one of the most exciting matchups in bowl season, pitting the Arizona Wildcats up against the SEC-bound Oklahoma Sooners. Right up front, we have to examine the impact the transfer portal has had on this game, particularly for Brent Venables and Oklahoma. It’s worth mentioning that the Sooners will be without Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, so five-star recruit Jackson Arnold will step into the role for his first career start. Arnold will still have a majority of the Sooners offense playing in this game, including receiver Drake Stoops and Nic Anderson. However, he’ll be going up against an Arizona defense that greatly improved this season, going from outside the top 100 in most metrics in 2022 to inside the top 40 in 2023. This is a tall task for the young QB and I’m not sure how well he’ll be able to handle it early on.

At this point, most followers of this column know that I was an early adopter of this Arizona team and the Wildcats have treated me extremely well all season long. I’ve been backing Arizona for months, particularly since the insertion of Noah Fifita at quarterback. Not only did Fifita outperform all expectations after replacing Jaden DeLaura, but he was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college Football, putting up 23 touchdowns to just only 5 interceptions on the season. He should be able to pick apart a Sooners defense that struggled against good passing attacks this season, including poor Games against Kansas, Oklahoma State and Texas. I’d argue that Arizona’s quarterback and weapons on the outside are better than that of the Jayhawks and Cowboys, so there’s reason to expect that the Wildcats will see success in this one. At a field goal or better, I have to take Arizona one final time.