Best MLB prop bet for today 9/29: Charlie Morton shuts down Royals | Pickswise

Charlie Morton and the Atlanta Braves will look to bolster their playoff positioning against Alec Marsh and the Kansas City Royals today and we have a player prop bet for that matchup.

Let’s dive in!

Charlie Morton (ATL) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155.

Charlie Morton has been in decent form across his last 8 starts, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 of those outings. His last start saw 4 earned runs charged against the 40-year-old, but that was a road start and Morton now returns home for his last start of the regular season. Morton’s ERA at home is 1.21 runs lower than his ERA in road starts, and he has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of 16 Games at home including each of his last 4. The right-hander now faces a Royals lineup that has been slumping against right-handed pitching in the month of September, ranking 26th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 75. Kansas City is a far better offensive unit when in their home park, and its road struggles have been pretty consistent throughout the season.

Morton is not the best pitcher when it comes to coMMAnding the strike zone, walking 9.2% of the batters he has faced this season. The Royals’ path to success would be if Morton struggles to locate his pitches — but I think the veteran arm will be able to step up in a Game that could greatly help the Braves make the postseason. Morton has plenty of late-season experience throughout his long career, and I think his stuff will play well against a Royals lineup that doesn’t have a ton of experience against him in head-to-head settings. Their 96 combined PA against him all-time have combined for just a .603 OPS anyway, so I expect Morton to allow no more than 2 earned runs in this matchup.