Week 1 CFB best bets, odds & picks inc. Boise State & Washington

The long and eventful offseason is in the rearview mirror and the 2023 college football season is upon us. Week 0 was a nice appetizer, but the battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins in earnest on Saturday and won’t slow down until December. Could we see the Georgia Bulldogs 3-peat this season, or will another program rise to the top of the college football world?

With the offseason chaos behind us and our extensive college football previews for every conference available for your reading pleasure, it’s time to get into the Week 1 slate with my weekly best bets column. The 2022 season was very profitable for this column, as I finished with a win rate over 60%, highlighted by an 8-0 run to close out championship week and bowl season. Hopefully you cashed with me!

While we didn’t get off to a great start in Week 0, there are tons of games to find value on in the first full week of games. Let’s take a look at our best bets for the opening weekend of the college football season.

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Washington Huskies -14 (-110) over Boise State Broncos

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Much like the other two best bets on my card this weekend, this matchup features a team that I’m looking to fade out of the gate. However, Washington is the lone favorite in the column this week, giving us a chance to lay the points with an excellent side before getting into some murkier waters with underdogs in a moment. I’ve been extremely high on Washington all summer, as the Huskies have 3 things I value in any college Football team I’m looking to back: a great coach, a great veteran quarterback and a strong front seven on defense. Washington is one of the rare teams in this league that won’t get pushed around in the trenches by a physical opponent, while also being able to put up points with arguably the best passing attack in the country, led by Michael Penix Jr. under center.

Kalen DeBoer’s innovative offense did wonders for Penix Jr. in 2022, making him one of the most efficient passers in the country. Washington’s passing attack should pick up where it left off against a Boise State defense that needed to replace 7 starters who are now playing at the NFL level. This ranges across the defense, from pass-rushers to core pieces in the Broncos’ linebacking corps. That’s not ideal against this fantastic wide receiving room and one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. On offense, Talen Green showed flashes of brilliance last season, but he’s still at the helm of a run-first offense that is also undergoing a change under new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan. You can beat this Huskies defense with explosive plays, but Boise won’t provide that here. I make the number closer to 17, so let’s roll with this elite duo of coach and quarterback at home.

Be sure to check out our full Boise State vs Washington predictions

Colorado State Rams +11.5 (-110) vs Washington State Cougars

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I’ve had this Game circled for a few months now, and I think we’re getting a great chance to bet on a team I’m high on while fading a team that I don’t have much belief in. Colorado State head coach Jay Norvell inherited a mess of a team in his first season last fall, and the results reflected as such. However, we’ve seen Norvell turn things around in his second season in the past, including a dramatic improvement at Nevada, where he took the Wolfpack from a miserable 3-win season in his first year to an 8-5 record in year 2. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw a similar case at Colorado State.

The Rams return 8 starters from a surprisingly solid defense a season ago, plus they’re essentially getting a brand new offensive line to protect one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Clay Millen. On the other side, the Washington State Cougars will see a massive change on offense under new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, who will input an influx of pace for the Cougars this fall. Results could be mixed, however, as Cam Ward is much better as a runner than a passer. I have serious concerns about his ability to protect the football, as evident by his 21 turnover-worthy plays in 2022. The Cougars were also 89th in EPA per pass on defense last season, so Millen and company should be able to move the ball consistently all evening. I’m higher than the market on Colorado State so I’ll gladly take the opportunity to back the Rams at this number.

Be sure to check out our full Washington State vs Colorado State predictions

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North Texas Mean Green +7 (-120) vs California Bears

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.

California is a team that I am looking to fade throughout the season, and we’ll get started nice and early with a Week 1 trip to Denton, Texas, where the weather is going to be brutal on Saturday. Conditions are expected to be around 100 degrees at the time of writing, with the height of this heat coming between the hours of 2:30-7:00 p.m. EST (exactly when this game will take place). The conditions are going to be unlike what this California team is used to, giving the hosts a bit of an edge before we even get to breaking down the Xs and Os on the field. Jake Spavital takes over the reigns at offensive coordinator for the Bears, and he’ll be implementing a massive stylistic change to an offense that struggled in 2022. Playing with great pace and tempo in the first game of the season sounds great, but I don’t that working out for Cal’s offense in these difficult conditions.

Eric Morris takes over at head coach for a Mean Green team that is used to succeeding on the ground, ranking inside the top 50 in EPA per play and EPA per rush last season. This Mean Green team has the running Game to succeed against a Justin Wilcox defense, plus they have one of the better offensive lines in the AAC. To make matters worse, the typically strong Cal defense suffered some significant losses in the secondary, so the Bears can be had there as well. I do prefer the +7 that is in the market at -120 if you can get it, but taking the 6.5 points is a worthwhile option too. It wouldn’t shock me if North Texas wins this one outright, so you’ll want to have a money line sprinkle.

Be sure to check out our full California vs North Texas predictions

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