Warriors vs Lakers Predictions, Picks & Odds - 4-9-2024

Flu-like symptoms sidelined LeBron James on Sunday night, costing the Los Angeles Lakers a win and thus escalating the importance of tonight’s matchup with the Golden State Warriors. A Lakers win would keep alive their hopes of escaping the lesser Play-In Game. A Warriors victory would give Steph Curry an avenue to home-court advantage in a fifth matchup this season between these two icons in the single-elimination half of the Play-In Tournament.

When stakes are that high, we will always trust LeBron to find a way to get points on the board, with the playmaker side shining in our free NBA picks as we dig into Warriors vs. Lakers predictions on Tuesday, April 9.

Warriors vs Lakers predictions

My best bet
LeBron James Over 8.5 assists (-115 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

Officially, LeBron James is still only questionable to play tonight, but given the stakes, it should be assumed he will find his way to the court. Monday’s loss to the Timberwolves did not help the Los Angeles Lakers' plight, but beating the Golden State Warriors is doubly important, given that rival's looming threat in the standings.

The same assumption cannot quite be given to Anthony Davis after an eye injury cut short his Sunday night after just 12 minutes. The injury report considers Davis questionable. If Davis cannot go, even more emphasis should be put on James’s playmaking.

LeBron can pour in the points on demand still, even at age 39. It defies comprehension. Since the All-Star Break, he has scored at least 30 points in six of 19 games, including reaching 40 points twice, one of which came in his most recent meeting with the Warriors.

But he does not do it consistently. He does share the ball consistently, however, dishing out at least nine assists in 14 of those 19 games.

That is in part because Los Angeles is shooting better. Excluding LeBron, the Lakers hit 36.8% of their 3-pointers before the All-Star Break. Since then, they have hit 38.6%. That may not seem like much, but with Los Angeles also attempting about three more 3s per Game, that slight uptick in shooting percentage equals nearly two more made 3s each night.

That is two more buckets with possible assists, not to mention a spread out floor more demanding of the opposing defense’s attention. LeBron can drive down the lane to enjoy some of that spread defense, but the best utilization of it will be to continue to set up his hot shooters.

Warriors vs Lakers same-game parlay

LeBron James Over 8.5 assists

D’Angelo Russell Over 3.5 made 3s

Rui Hachimura Over 1.5 made 3s

+493 at FanDuel

This should not need much explanation. The Lakers are hitting more 3s. LeBron is setting up many of them. Let’s play those two thoughts together in our same-Game parlay.

D’Angelo Russell has averaged 4.1 made 3s per Game since March 15, while Rui Hachimura has hit 1.8. Russell has hit at least four 3s in eight of those 11 Games, with Hachimura hitting multiple 3s in four. This exact same-Game parlay would have cashed twice in LeBron’s last six Games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Lakers odds

Warriors vs Lakers live odds

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Warriors vs Lakers opening odds

• Spread: Golden State +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
• Moneyline: Golden State +104 | Los Angeles -115
• Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5

Warriors vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis

• This spread has not moved much, opening with the Lakers favored at home by 2.5 points and remaining there at most sites.
• In mid-March, Golden State was a 1.5-point favorite at home against Los Angeles, the four-point swing between then and now effectively accounting for home court, if not underselling the Lakers by a touch.
• The total has jumped to 235 after opening at 232.5, perhaps a nod to Los Angeles deserving more credit here, given the Lakers have cashed the Over in 44 of 79 games this season (56.3%).

Warriors vs Lakers trend

Nine of Los Angeles’s 13 home games since the All-Star Break have gone Over their totals, with one of the exceptions being a push. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Lakers.

Warriors vs Lakers game info

Warriors vs Lakers latest injuries