USMNT, Mexico, Canada enter Concacaf Nations League quarterfinals with a chance to renew rivalries

By certain metrics, things have not changed much in Concacaf recently. The U.S. men's national team and Mexico have claimed all of the continent's trophies since 2002, while El Tri are two places ahead of the USMNT in the FIFA rankings, their next closest regional foe 17 places away. Despite those metrics of success, though, things have not been straightforward for either the U.S. or Mexico in 2024.

Concacaf's historic heavyweights have hit some snags in recent months, both in regional play and most notably in this year's biggest showcase – the Copa America, when each team crashed out of the group stage. Their performances challenge some preconceived notions about the USMNT and Mexico individually and the region as a whole, especially as Canada makes a push for top accolades in North America.  

It makes this month's Concacaf Nations League quarterfinals a fascinating check-in for each of the 2026 World Cup co-hosts, who all aim to make a statement in two years' time. There's another layer of intrigue in the fact that each of the co-hosting national teams made managerial changes in 2024, with the Nations League marking the first comPetitive matches since the USMNT and Mexico hired Mauricio Pochettino and Javier Aguirre, respectively. The upcoming Games will offer a first glance at the progress those two teams hope to make in time for 2026, while Canada will have a chance to demonstrate that their form under new head coach Jesse Marsch is no flash in the pan.

Here's what's at stake for each of the World Cup co-hosts with the countdown to 2026 officially underway.

USMNT try new ideas

Each of the 2026 World Cup co-hosts enter the Nations League games after playing each other in friendlies over the last couple of months, with the USMNT arguably coming out of it worse than the others. They coupled a surprise group stage exit at the Copa America with a 2-1 loss to Canada in September and a 2-0 defeat to Mexico in October, notching just two wins in their last nine games in the process. The string of unimpressive performances recalibrated expectations of the USMNT in the process, with few denying their potential but many questioning their ability to deliver on it. It led U.S. Soccer to hire Pochettino in September, who they hope will infuse new ideas and quickly turn the team around with less than two years to go until the World Cup.

Though Pochettino promised entertaining, attacking soccer and an embrace of the nation's winning mentality, lasting change will not come overnight for the USMNT. The new head coach has relied on familiar faces and insisted that he is slowly integrating his attacking ideas in his first months in charge, which comes as little surprise given the newness of his responsibilities. This month's Nations League tie against Jamaica, though, might force his hand – a batch of injuries and Timothy Weah's suspension for the first leg means fresh faces and new ideas could be on display as soon as Thursday in Kingston.

One of those new approaches could be in defense, where Pochettino intentionally brought just two natural fullbacks with the idea that others could slot in based on their experience at the club level and tactical trends in the sport.

"I think today, football in the last few years, you see the teams like Manchester City, Arsenal and company, I think we can see that a center back can play like a fullback," he said in a press conference on Sunday. "Tim Ream, [in Charlotte FC's MLS Cup Playoffs game against Orlando City], was playing like a fullback. For me, he's a center back but he was playing the left fullback. He can play. Depends on the dynamics of the game … I think we all agree that Yunus Musah can play wingback, maybe right back. Against Real Madrid [in last week's UEFA Champions League match], he performed in a fantastic way and they won the game with [AC] Milan. I think he's another player that can perform there, can play."

Mexico go for the tried and true

The year got off to a rough start for Mexico, who looked unconvincing as they lost to the U.S. in the Concacaf Nations Final in March, following that up with their own shock group stage elimination at the Copa America. Mexico's years-long ability to be a competitor in Concacaf felt like it was fading, some arguing that El Tri's player pool was not as strong as the USMNT's. Though that will not be a short-term fix, Mexico opted to make a big change in the meantime, they swapped head coach Jaime Lozano for Aguirre, who is now in his third stint as Mexico's manager.

Mexico are now undefeated in four Games under Aguirre, including a 0-0 draw with Canada in September and the 2-0 win over the USMNT last month. The difference between October's Game against the U.S. and the one in March was arguably night and day – El Tri brought an intensity that was missing last winter, easily looking like the better side in a match that was evenly contested in several respects. While the teams were essentially neck-and-neck on possession, touches and passes, Mexico outshot the U.S. 17 to five and got two goals in the process.

El Tri had a similar game plan against Canada, though churned out seven fewer shots on that occasion and were unable to find the back of the net. Though they remain imperfect, the games mark a strong first showing for Aguirre's Mexico, though they will have to demonstrate that they can keep that progress going with this month's quarterfinal tie against Honduras.

Canada's upward trajectory

Even though the USMNT and El Tri have underwhelmed, the most game-changing development in North America this year just might be Canada's upward swing. The team has been knocking on the door for some time, finishing atop the continent's World Cup qualifying table in 2022, but a fourth-place finish at the Copa America demonstrates that there's plenty of potential for this side.

While the USMNT and Mexico kicked off their periods of transition in the fall, Canada beat them to the punch by hiring Marsch in the spring. The weeks-long ramp to the Copa America proved not to be an issue, finding ways to survive different tactical challenges since he took over. They were gritty at times during their Copa America run and other times more attack-minded, including in their opening day loss to Argentina in which they mustered 10 shots and a few meaningful looks at goal.

Marsch's Canada are perfectly comfortable without the ball but find a way to create advantages in some more evenly contested games. Before Mexico did the same in October, Canada beat the USMNT in September by ceding possession but outshooting the opponents 17 to eight. The U.S., then led by interim head coach Mikey Varas, were particularly sloppy that day but Canada were happy to take advantage of the opportunity to collect their first win at the U.S. since 1957.

The pressure remains on Canada to see if they can maintain this run of form, though they earned top seeding for the Nations League quarterfinals and have a favorable tie against Suriname this month as a result.