In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 (also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 90) at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Hernandez vs. Jackson odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 3 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 6 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Records: Hernandez (14-7-0) | Jackson (22-6-1)
Hernandez was on the losing end of a unanimous decision in a Fight Night in early October last time out. Prior to that, he defeated Jim Miller via unanimous decision in Feb. 2023. He has dropped 3 of the past 4 bouts, and 2 of those losses finished inside the distance, with a KO/TKO setback at UFC 282 to Billy Quarantillo, and a submission loss to Renato Moicano at UFC 271.
Jackson has suffered consecutive losses, falling to Quarantillo via UD last time out in early August, and he was knocked out in Round 2 against Dan Ige in Jan. 2023. His last victory came in 69 seconds in a KO/TKO win over Pat Sabatini in mid-Sept. 2022.
Hernandez holds a 1-inch reach advantage, and the favorite has a 4.63-to-3.02 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Jackson is better on the ground, holding a 2.44-to-1.20 takedown average advantage and 34.69% takedown accuracy percentage. He also has a strong 1.58-to-0.13 submission average advantage.
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UFC Fight Night 240: Hernandez vs. Jackson
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Hernandez -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Jackson +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +175 | No -250)
UFC Fight Night 240: Hernandez vs. Jackson picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Hernandez (-210), a.k.a. “The Great Ape”, is looking to get back on track after dropping 3 of the past 4 bouts. He has lost in every way imaginable, via decision, via KO/TKO and via submission in the 4-bout span since Feb. 2022. His only win came via unanimous decision against Miller in Feb. 2023.
As such, it’s hard to roll the dice and risk more than 2 times your potential return on a fighter like that. However, Jackson (+170) cannot be trusted, as he has dropped the past 2 bouts, and most of his wins have come against tomato cans.
The best play is to take HERNANDEZ ON POINTS (+350) for a chance to more than triple up. He went the distance in his past 2, and Jackson went the distance last time out. This is too good of a value to pass up.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-160) is a little on the pricey side, but given the recent history of these 2 fighters, it should be a slam-dunk play.
In addition, YES (+175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? has a lot more risk than the above prop play, but it’s a decent value if you don’t want to declare a winner but still want some plus-money action in this main card event.
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