In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa meet Saturday at UFC 298 at Honda Center in Anaheim. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 298: Whittaker vs. Costa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on Pay-Per-View.
Records: Whittaker (25-7-0) | Costa (14-2-0)
Whittaker is looking to rebound after a 2nd-round KO/TKO loss to Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 290 last time out in early July. He has dropped 2 of the past 3 fights, including a title shot against Israel Adesanya at UFC 271 in a rematch of their title fight at UFC 243. The Last Stylebender also topped Whittaker in that bout.
Whittaker has ended up going the distance in 5 of the past 6 fights and 7 of the previous 9 bouts. His 2 fights inside the distance have resulted in KO/TKO losses, both in the 2nd round.
Costa halted a 2-bout skid against Adesanya and Marvin Vettori with a unanimous-decision win over Luke Rockhold at UFC 278 in Aug. 2022. He was expected to fight at UFC 294, but he had elbow surgery instead, so he was unable to fight Khamzat Chimaev in the United Arab Emirates.
Whittaker takes the walk with a slight 1.5-inch reach advantage, while Costa has the 6.50-to-4.47 significant strikes landed minute advantage. Costa is much more accurate with the strikes, too, hitting at a 62.28% pace, while Whittaker has just a 45.37% significant strikes accuracy percentage.
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UFC 298: Whittaker vs. Costa odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Whittaker -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Costa +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)
UFC 298: Whittaker vs. Costa picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
COSTA (+190) has had a lengthy layoff, and that’s always a concern. After more than a calendar year off, bettors begin to doubt the cardio of a fighter. It might take him a couple of rounds to get back into the swing of things, and that’s not always easy against a top contender such as Whittaker (-250).
However, Costa dominates in the statistics. He is more accurate, he throws a lot more strikes per minute, and he is even better in the ground statistics. While there is some doubt after the long layoff, take a chance on Costa.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-165) is a little on the pricey side, but it’s worth a shot.
Again, Whittaker has ended up going the distance in 5 of the past 6 fights. It’s a concern with Costa after the long layoff. Does he have the stamina to go the distance, or will he be looking for the kill shot early? Costa had gone the distance in 3 of his previous 4 fights prior to the lengthy layoff due to surgery.
YES (-135): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? comes with some risk, too, but it’s a good play, and not priced out of line.
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