In a 5-round featherweight bout in the main event, Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 241 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 99 and UFC Vegas 92 — at the UFC’s Apex Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 241: Barboza vs. Murphy odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Records: Barboza (24-11-0) | Murphy (13-0-1)
Barboza takes the walk to the octagon with 2 straight victories over Billy Quarantillo and Sodiq Yusuff, with a 1st-round KO/TKO of Quarantillo. He has bounced back nicely after a pair of losses to Giga Chikadze and Bryce Mitchell.
Junior has ended up going the distance in just 2 of his past 5 fights, with the other 3 resulting in KO/TKOs, with 2 wins and a loss in those bouts.
Murphy has won 5 straight bouts since a draw against Zubaira Tukhugov in his company debut at UFC 242 back in Sept. 2019. He has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights, including a unanimous-decision win over Josh Culibao last time out in July 2023.
Junior holds a slight 1½-inch reach advantage over Murphy, and he has a slight 4.18-to-3.65 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Murphy has been much more accurate with those strikes, however, landing 57.37% to just 46.02% for Barboza.
Murphy has done better work on the ground, too, posting a 1.29 takedown average and 0.86 submission average.
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UFC Fight Night 241: Barboza vs. Murphy odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:37 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Barboza +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Murphy -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -110 | No -120)
UFC Fight Night 241: Barboza vs. Murphy picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
MURPHY (-150) is an up-and-comer looking to move up the rankings in the featherweight division. A win over an aging, yet still dangerous Barboza (+125) would be quite a feather in the Briton’s cap.
Murphy has picked up 5 straight victories, including 3 via decision in the past 4 fights. The lone exception was a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Makwan Amirkhani at UFC 267.
Murphy is accurate with his strikes, and he does good work getting the fight to the mat, if needed, while posting a solid submission average.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-160) is worth a look, as this fight isn’t likely to see a quick ending. Barboza is starting to get a little long in the tooth, but he has good cardio, is smart, and won’t get himself into an untenable position.
Murphy has ended up going the distance in 2 straight, and 3 of the past 4 bouts, and he is unlikely to get a quick finish, either.
YES (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also worth a play and not a bad option for the conservative bettor who wants action on the fight, but doesn’t want to declare a winner.
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