In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Jose Aldo and Jonathan Martinez meet Saturday at UFC 301 at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 301: Aldo vs. Martinez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET and is on pay-per-view.
Records: Aldo (31-8-0) | Martinez (19-4-0)
The veteran Aldo makes his way back to the octagon for the 1st time since Aug. 20, 2022, when he lost via unanimous decision to Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 278. He had won the previous 3 fights, all via unanimous decision, since a 5th-round KO/TKO loss in a title fight to Petr Yan at UFC 251.
Aldo announced his retirement in 2022, but he had been working on a potential fight with Dominick Cruz. That ended up falling through, but Martinez took the fight in Cruz’s place to keep Aldo on the card in his native Brazil.
Martinez has rattled off 6 consecutive victories since a 2nd-round KO/TKO loss to Davey Grant back in March 2021. He has a pair of knockout wins in the 6-bout win streak, with 4 unanimous-decision wins.
The 37-year-old Hall of Famer Aldo has landed 3.57 significant strikes per minute at a 50.30% accuracy percentage. He also has done work on the mat, posting a 0.49 takedown average with a 54.17% takedown accuracy percentage and 0.15 submission average.
The southpaw Martinez has an outstanding 4.64 significant strikes landed per minute, and he is slightly more accurate at 52.81%.
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UFC 301: Aldo vs. Martinez odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Martinez -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Aldo +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -225 | No +165)
UFC 301: Aldo vs. Martinez picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Aldo (+120) makes his way back to the octagon, and what a story it would be for him to return to his native Brazil to pull off one more victory.
However, the time is now for MARTINEZ (-145), who will have his coming out party in hostile territory. He has some awe-inspiring wins, including a KO/TKO of Cub Swanson in Oct. 2022, but beating Aldo after a nearly 2-year hiatus would be impressive.
Over/Under (O/U)
Martinez has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 6 fights. Aldo has seen the judges decide his fate in each of the previous 4 outings. While that’s all well and good, there are some concerns about Aldo’s cardio after such a long layoff. Is “Junior” back to his pre-retirement self, and will he be able to go a full 3 rounds with a beast like Martinez?
YES (-225): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little on the expensive side, but it’s worth a look. And if that’s too expensive for your taste, playing MARTINEZ BY DECISION (+125) at plus-money is a much better value.
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