Timberwolves vs Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Odds - Game 1

For nearly a year now, the Denver Nuggets have credited the Minnesota Timberwolves for giving them the toughest postseason test on their way to the 2023 NBA title. Minnesota was down a starter and two rotation pieces, and the series went only five games, but it led after the third quarter in Games 2 and 4 and was tied in Game 5.

Much has changed since then, but last week emphasized once again not to doubt the Nuggets late in games. The Timberwolves are better nowadays, yet Jamal Murray looms. Minnesota deserves some confidence in this series, but betting against Denver in the fourth quarter is a risky decision.

That directs us to an earlier best bet in our free NBA picks as we dig into Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions, with tip on Saturday, May 4.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions

My best bet
Timberwolves first-half moneyline (+140 at Caesars)

My analysis
Minnesota has long struggled early in games, its best characteristics often showing up in third quarters. But the Timberwolves found a focus in the week before the playoffs, emphasized some conditioning drills, and game-planned for the Phoenix Suns. It paid off right out of the gates, winning that Game 1 first half, 61-51.

Heading into that Game 4, Minnesota acknowledged the want to get another week off before this next round, a chance to replicate that week of study heading into the playoffs, a chance to adjust responsibilities in preparation to defend the reigning champions, a chance to further Karl-Anthony Towns’ strength and conditioning as he comes back from a meniscus surgery only seven weeks ago.

Of course, the Nuggets had the same chance. But it is the Timberwolves who need to work Towns back to full Health, and it is the Timberwolves who need to adjust to beating the Nuggets. Denver won their final regular-season matchup, a Game that effectively decided who would have homecourt advantage in this series.

Minnesota should deploy the first wrinkle in this series, whatever it may be. The obvious choice would be to play Nickeil Alexander-Walker more and Mike Conley less, an effort to emphasize the best defense in the NBA against the best starting five in the NBA. The Wolves may not turn to that out of the gates — the savvy thought would be to save that hounding lineup for Murray’s time to shine, the fourth quarter — but they have options.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets may have spent much of this week catching their breath. That is not a criticism so much as it is an acknowledgment of the minutes their starters needed to log to slip by the Lakers. Four of their five starters averaged more than 39 minutes in what was supposed to be an easier series. The fifth, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, played 36 minutes per game.

Denver can trust its clutch performances as long as Jamal Murray is on the court. Minnesota knows it cannot wait to find its footing in the biggest series in the franchise’s last 20 years. The Timberwolves should win the first 24 minutes of this series just as they did the last one, that sense of urgency perhaps setting a tone until Murray has something to say about it.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)

Timberwolves first-half moneyline

Mike Conley Under 11.5 points

Jamal Murray Over 6.5 assists

+700 at FanDuel

Conley picks his moments. When the Timberwolves absolutely need a bucket, when the game is teetering in the clutch, when tensions are highest, those are the moments Conley squares up from three. And those always seem to go in, especially late in the season. Conley shot 44.1% from deep following the All-Star break on 5.6 threes per game.

But if the logical adjustment for Minnesota to consider is more Alexander-Walker and less Conley, then the veteran point guard will not get looks in those moments. His scoring could plummet.

The same thought process applies to betting on Jamal Murray to dish out assists. Adding to Alexander-Walker’s minutes should mean two of him, Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards are on the court for all of Murray’s minutes. They will be looking to force the ball out of his hands.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds

Timberwolves vs Nuggets live odds

Get the latest Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA playoff odds for Game 1.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets opening odds

• Spread: Minnesota +4 (-115) | Denver -4 (-105)
• Moneyline: Minnesota +155 | Denver -185
• Over/Under: Over 207.5 (-110) | Under 207.5 (-110)

Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Timberwolves opened as 5-point underdogs and initial movement pushed that spread down to +4, though it settled at +4.5.
  
  
• These two teams met four times in the regular season, and their pregame totals averaged 215.4 points. Consider this total of 207.5 to be a sign of playoff basketball’s realities.
  
  
• Minnesota opened as a +200 underdog in the series, but consistent action through the week knocked that down to about +160 at most books.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets trend

Denver went Under its team total in four of its five games against the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets game info

Timberwolves vs Nuggets latest injuries