Predicting every place in the 2024-25 Premier League table: Why Arsenal top Man City, Fulham relegated, more

At the dawn of the 2024-25 Premier League you would do well to distinguish it from its previous iteration. Beyond the fact that the newly promoted teams don't look quite so much like relegation fodder in waiting, this is a comPetition relatively unchanged from 12 months ago. Two teams begin the year with realistic aspirations of ending Pep Guardiola's hegemony, many of those with the financial muscle to match them are struggling to get out of their own way at a time when Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) are cooling the internal market. Without a money pump from Saudi Arabia, the USA, or elsewhere, stasis is the defining characteristic of a league that prides itself on its unpredictability.

The task then of predicting the entire Premier League table should be an easier endeavor in this season than almost any before it. One suspects that in spite of that I will still look rather foolish come the evening of May 25. Oh well.

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The top three

1. Arsenal
Were it not for the presence of a nation-state funded colossus, led by the greatest coach of his generation and managed by best-in-class staff across every department, one might argue Arsenal are set fair to end their 21 year wait for the Premier League title. The youngsters who attacked the autumn of 2022 with such fearlessness have learned from their setbacks; since they began their pre-pre-season seven weeks ago there has been a determination emanating from Mikel Arteta, Martin Odegaard and all who follow them that they are going to get out in front and not let up for a minute. Look at the energy with which they flew at Lyon in the scalding heat of their final pre-season game. They are ready to go.

2. Manchester City
The defending champions still begin the season as favorites, as any team with Ruben Dias, Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland must. The questions are around the players who surround those and the rest of Guardiola's lynchpins. Even after the addition of Savinho, City look a little light in depth terms, a situation that is not going to be eased now that multipurpose forward Julian Alvarez is taking on a starring role at Atletico Madrid. In midfield, for instance, there is precious little proven quality beyond Rodri, De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic. In a season that is going to last 48 weeks, Guardiola may not be able to carry the small squad he favors.

3. Liverpool
There is one other horse in this race, though for now Liverpool seem a little more intent on stalking the leading pair. From a certain angle it is easy to see why this, the first season without Jurgen Klopp, might be one in which to rebuild, to give time to head coach Arne Slot and the returning Michael Edwards. This team's great success under the previous boss came because they had the patience to get the right player. Equally, those who were so shrewdly recruited now are coming to the end of their peak. Though there are promising pieces for the future, there may also be only a year left in which to get another winners' medal for Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah. Perish the thought, that might also be true of Trent Alexander-Arnold. Does the squad as currently constructed, perhaps with Martin Zubimendi at the base of midfield, have what it takes to bridge last season's top two?

Is anyone good enough for fourth?

One thing seems pretty likely, Liverpool are going to get closer than most. They might not be making a great leap forward but no one else is either.

4. Newcastle United 
Eddie Howe's side are feeling financial pressure after past seasons of spending, their most significant acquisition so far Odysseas Vlachodimos in what is said to be a remarkably pricey move for a backup goalkeeper. Add Marc Guehi and keep this squad fit though, and there might well be a path to the top four for Howe.  

5. Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs at least go into this season relatively confident they have found the manager for them. Acquisitions such as Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall speak to a side building a squad for the long term with Ange Postecoglu's vision in mind, all harmonious enough even if the relative state of their finances makes one wonder if this was a summer when they might have swung at more ambitious targets than Dominic Solanke in positions of need.  

6. Manchester United
Erik ten Hag will have aspirations to simply keep his Manchester United squad away from the treatment room. Those were already being scuppered before the season had begun. Rasmus Hojlund's absence, even temporarily, shouldn't feel like quite as much of a problem as it does. After a summer that started with Sir Jim Ratcliffe scouring the market for a coaching upgrade, it is curious that the United hierarchy have allowed themselves to add more names to what is threatening to become the Eredivisie All Stars. It will be a fascinating thought experiment, at least.  

7. Aston Villa
Last season's fourth placed side Aston Villa spent big to propel themselves close to the richest in the land, now that the Jack Grealish bounty has dropped out of their PSR calculations they have had to be more circumspect. Unai Emery's men look just about improved on paper and if either Amadou Onana, the returning Boubacar Kamara or even Ross Barkley can cover for Douglas Luiz they should be ok. Their signing of Ian Maatsen might be the shrewdest acquisition in the top flight last season, but the fear will be that eight Champions League games might weigh too heavily on Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins without Moussa Diaby to job-share with the former.

9. Chelsea
We're breaking the formula here with Chelsea dropping below the level of the group they start the season in. There's not much point writing much about them is there. The squad that exists when we hit publish will doubtless be profoundly changed by the time you get 1,000 words into this piece. Here is an organization that shows itself to not believe in the value of automatisms.

Ones to watch

8. Crystal Palace
For every team that drops, one must rise. If only Palace could keep the squad that ended last season together. They might be able to cope without Michael Olise if they can get a full season of Eberechi Eze at the peak of his powers. After Oliver Glasner's appointment they proved that Guehi's absence need not be terminal. If Joachim Andersen is not tempted to Fulham the defense looks strong, the midfield exceptionally impressive if Adam Wharton is partnered by a Cheick Doucoure at anything like the level he was before. They are only a few sales away from tumbling down the predicted table, but a possible return for Wilfried Zaha might rocket fuel a European bid.

10. Bournemouth
The Cherries are in a similar spot. Solanke's loss to Tottenham could be profoundly felt, but their track record in the market of late suggests they will invest their £65 million shrewdly. Only five Premier League teams had a better expected goal (xG) difference in 2024 than Andoni Iraola's; given more time on the training ground they might just fly. 

11. West Ham
It also seems plausible that West Ham could mount some sort of push if their high variance recruitment this summer pays off. Handing Niclas Fullkrug, a 31-year-old with a fairly sketchy career record, a four-year contract may go badly wrong, but the striker vortex in East London works in weird ways. If he clicks, if Jean-Clair Todibo and Max Kilman impress in defense, and if the investigation into Lucas Paqueta continues to move slowly, this might be a very dangerous side.

A zone of their own

12. Brighton and Hove Albion
Too good to get dragged into the relegation zone, but in enough of a rebuilding mode that they are unlikely to push for Europe, Brighton defy categorization with the rest of these teams. Instead look to be ready for something interesting a few seasons down the line if Joao Pedro, Malick Yalcouye and Yankuba Minteh can coalesce under Fabian Hurzeler's tutelage... just so long as they stop picking up the phone when Chelsea ring.

The relegation scrap

13. Brentford
14. Everton
15. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Both Everton and Wolves have lost big players in the form of Onana and Pedro Neto, but while both were capable of moments of excellence last season their then-employers survival in the top flight was not contingent on either. A PSR-based points deduction for Sean Dyche's side might send them in the lurch but it is worth noting that without one last season they would have been 11th despite their poor finishing. In chance creation terms they had the league's seventh best non-penalty xG difference. Brentford also fared better by that metric than points. They should be fine.

16. Nottingham Forest
So did Nottingham Forest, whose propensity for chaotic thinking does offer more pause for concern. More so than Everton, a PSR sanction could be all it takes to send them hurtling to depths even Morgan Gibbs-White can't drag them out from. The scattergun recruitment that defined the first two years of Premier League Football at the City Ground also seems to have eased. Elliott Anderson promises to be an impressive addition.

17. Southampton
18. Fulham
19. Leicester City
20. Ipswich
All three of the promoted sides look superior to last season's arrivals from the Championship, but the looming PSR punishment for Leicester City might leave them with too much to do if they are to survive. Both Ipswich and Southampton have picked up some impressive young English talent to serve them well next season -- keep an eye out for Ronnie Edwards -- but the presence of more experienced operators like Adam Lallana and Ben Brereton-Diaz might be enough to keep the latter above water.

Who might join them? Fulham have not frequently been put in the mix elsewhere but the warning signs are there. Joao Palhinha leaves a chasm at the base of midfield and although Tosin Adarabioyo was being fazed out of the first team before he joined Chelsea, Jorge Cuenca will have a lot to do to replace both him and Tim Ream. Add to that a frontline where the likes of Rodrigo Muniz and Raul Jimenez outperformed low expectations last season and you have a recipe for real trouble at Craven Cottage.

Predicted Premier League table