NFL Week 1 best bets - we went 66-43 for +45 units in 2023! | Pickswise

The 2024 NFL season is officially up and running, and we were treated to one hell of a season opener between the Ravens and Chiefs. In the end, it was a toe that separated the two teams as Kansas City prevailed 27-20, and now we have our first full Sunday slate to look forward to in nearly 8 months. The 2023 NFL season was particularly profitable for the Pickswise team, as we went 66-43 on our 3-star NFL best bets, which was good for +45 units if you tailed every play! On top of that, we finished up +65.3 units on our side-and-total NFL picks for every matchup, while our NFL parlays profited +38.54 units. It was truly a historic season, and now we’re back for more looking to improve on all those numbers! Let’s break down our NFL Week 1 best bets.

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NFL Week 1 best bet: Commanders +3.5 over Buccaneers (-110)

Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

Washington and Tampa Bay get their 2024 NFL season campaigns started and for our Commanders vs Buccaneers prediction I like the road team to at least turn this into a very close game. The Bucs vastly exceeded expectations last season, making it all the way to the Divisional Round of the playoffs before being ousted by the Lions, while it was a season to forget for Washington as they went 4-13 and allowed by far more points than any other team in the league, shipping an average of more than 30 points per game.

However, things have changed a lot in the offseason for the CoMMAnders and I expect them to show great improvement this year, starting with this Game in Tampa. The sky is the limit for Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, who looks every bit a superstar and is capable of having a debut season similar to that of CJ Stroud. This Washington offense did great things last year with Sam Howell under center, and with the arrival of Austin Ekeler in the backfield and drafting of Luke McCaffrey to play alongside Terry McLaurin and tight end Zach Ertz, this team could really take off. Dan Quinn takes over as head coach and should be able to shore up the defense, especially with the arrival of Bobby Wagner, Dante Fowler and Clelin Ferrell.

As for the Bucs, it was a miraculous first season in Florida for Baker Mayfield, but they still looked unspectacular for the most part and finished the campaign with a 9-8 record. Tampa does boast a solid defense but their offense does have some holes and it’s hard to see them pulling away from Washington. Therefore my Commanders vs Buccaneers best bet is for Washington to keep it within a field goal, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game outright.

Read our full Washington CoMMAnders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction

NFL Week 1 best bet: Jaguars vs Dolphins Under 49 (-110)

Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 48.5. 

For my Jaguars vs Dolphins best bet, I’m playing the under for a few reasons. As I laid out in my point-spread write-up, I’m pretty low on this Jacksonville offense. They were already nothing better than average last year, and then made a downgrade at receiver going from Calvin Ridley to Gabe Davis.

The Dolphins’ explosive receivers get most of the attention, but Mike McDaniel likes to establish the ground game even more than he likes to throw it, and I expect Miami’s defense to be better in 2024. They still managed to finish top 10 last year in yards allowed despite the fact that they dealt with a constant stream of injuries. And there have been rumblings that players in the Dolphins locker room didn’t get along with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who departed this offseason after just 1 year with the team. Anthony Weaver is the new DC, and he comes highly regarded out of Baltimore after landing multiple head coaching interviews in this past cycle. The Dolphins brought in some big-name veterans like Calais Campbell and Kendall Fuller this offseason, and they’ve now got a ton of experience on defense. All things considered, the Under feels the way to go.

Read our full Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins prediction

NFL Week 1 best bet: Texans -2.5 over Colts (-110)

Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

Expectations are sky-high for the Texans after they won the AFC South with a 10-7 record last season. At the very least they should be able to capture another division crown (+105 favorites going into the season). Houston is also a realistic +850 to win the AFC and +1600 to win the Super Bowl. There is no reason why head coach Demeco Ryans’ crew can’t accomplish some of that if not all of it. The Texans hit a home run with C.J. Stroud as the #2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and now the second-year quarterback out of Ohio State has even more weapons to work with, thanks to the acquisition of running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. All of this explains why we’re taking Houston as our Texans vs Colts pick.

Indianapolis boasts a promising young quarterback of its own in Anthony Richardson, but he has not played since Week 4 of the 2023 campaign due to a shoulder injury. As such, Richardson and the Colts may take a few weeks to get into a groove. The underdogs are playing at home this weekend, but is that really much of an advantage? Maybe not. Indianapolis compiled a 4-5 home record in 2023 and lost to the visiting Texans 23-19 in the regular-season finale. Don’t be surprised if head coach Shane Steichen’s squad loses this one by a somewhat similar scoreline. Take the road team with confidence for our Texans vs Colts best bet.

Read our full Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts prediction