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New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 10-6-24 NFL Picks

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5m ago

Oct 01, 2024 / 6790 Views

Miami Dolphins (1-3) vs. New England Patriots (1-3)
October 6, 2024 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: New England Patriots -1; Over/Under: 35.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots meet Sunday in week 5 NFL action at Gillette Stadium. Here’s a New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction. This article will include a New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Pick.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins are coming off losses to the Bills, Seahawks and Titans. The Dolphins have lost 4 of their last 6 road Games. Tyler Huntley is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 96 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 429 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while De’Von Achane has 20 receptions.

The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 97.8 yards per contest, and Achane leads the way with 165 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Miami is allowing 25.8 points and 282 yards per game. Jordyn Brooks leads the Miami Dolphins with 32 tackles, Calais Campbell has 2 sacks and Zach Sieler has 1 interception.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The New England Patriots are coming off losses to the Seahawks, Jets and 49ers. The New England Patriots have lost 5 straight home games. Jacoby Brissett is completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 536 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas have combined for 242 receiving yards on 26 catches, while Antonio Gibson has 7 receptions.

The New England Patriots ground Game is averaging 126.5 yards per contest, and Rhamondre Stevenson leads the way with 267 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 21.8 points and 353.3 yards per Game. Raekwon McMillan leads the New England Patriots with 24 tackles, Keion White has 4 sacks and Jabrill Peppers has 1 interception.

Why the New England Patriots will win

The Patriots have won each of their last 13 home games against AFC East opponents on a losing streak.
The Dolphins have lost 14 of their last 15 October road games against AFC East opponents.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last four October games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last seven Week 5 home games against AFC opponents.
The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Week 5 games at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have won the first quarter in each of their last eight Week 5 home games against AFC opponents.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

Austin Hooper has recorded 19+ receiving yards in each of his last seven October home appearances against AFC opponents.
Antonio Gibson has recorded 39+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his nine previous October home appearances.
Jacoby Brissett has recorded 199+ passing yards in each of his last six October home appearances.
Antonio Gibson has recorded 35+ rushing yards in seven of his eight previous appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
Kendrick Bourne has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last four appearances following a road loss.
Jacoby Brissett has recorded 18+ completions in each of his four previous Week 5 appearances.
Kyle Dugger is just one away from 10 career interceptions.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

Tyreek Hill has recorded 52+ receiving yards in each of his last 16 appearances with his team as a road underdog against AFC opponents.
Jaylen Waddle has recorded 45+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances against AFC East opponents.
Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 11+ rushing yards in four of his last five appearances against AFC opponents.
Raheem Mostert has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
Tyreek Hill has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Dolphins’ last six games as underdogs following a loss.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown two or more touchdowns in three of his last four regular season appearances with the Dolphins as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (3 vs Bills, Week 2).

Matchup/League Facts

The Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in yards per game (238.8) this season.
The Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards per game (112.3) this season.
The Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in points per game (11.3) this season.
The Dolphins rank T31st in the NFL in red zone percentage (33.3%) this season.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

On paper, the Miami Dolphins are the more talented team and should win, but that was the case against the Titans at home and that didn’t go well. Through this season and a handful of Games in 2022, Mike McDaniel has shown that he can’t form a comPetent Game plan without Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. The Dolphins have scored 12 or fewer points in 3 straight Games and had 184 total yards last week against the Titans. I’m supposed to believe things will improve on the road?

The New England Patriots obviously have issues of their own and aren’t any better offensively, but at least they’re at home. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Games as an underdog. I want nothing to do with these Dolphins until the offense looks somewhat functional.