MLB Thursday parlay at mega (+874) odds, today 8/17 | Pickswise

Thursday features one of the smallest slates we’ve seen all season. Only 12 teams will take the field on Thursday night, so there will be very limited action to watch and bet on. The slate begins with a 2:10 PM first pitch in Kansas City and concludes with a 10:10 first pitch in Los Angeles. Here is my 3-team parlay at over 8/1 odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Red Sox -1.5 (-120)

Tigers -1.5 (+146)

Brewers-Dodgers Alternate Under 7.5 (+116)

Parlay odds: +874

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Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120) over Washington Nationals

Baseball is better when Chris Sale is healthy. Boston’s injury-prone ace has only made 12 starts this season since he’s been battling several different injuries, but he is finally healthy and back in the rotation. Sale missed over two months due to a shoulder injury that many thought could end his season. However, the lefty returned last week against the Royals and took a no-hit bid into the 5th inning before allowing a home run. Sale struck out 7 and did not allow a walk as he looked like he was back in his prime. If the Red Sox are going to make a postseason push and attempt to steal a Wild Card spot, these are the types of games in which Boston needs to win. The Nationals can only play spoiler at this point, and Boston can’t afford to lose to a last-placed team.

Patrick Corbin is having a really odd season. The lefty has a 4.52 ERA through 24 starts which isn’t that bad. However, he has a 6.42 xERA and 5.24 WHIP which means Corbin has been getting extremely lucky. Corbin ranks in the 1st percentile in xBA, 2nd percentile in xSLG, 4th percentile in strikeout rate, 10th percentile in average exit velocity, and, well, you get the idea. His advanced metrics say that he should be getting shelled over and over, and yet he just threw a 1-hitter in 5 innings against the Phillies. Corbin’s season is hanging on by a thread, and since the Sox have Trevor Story back, I’m backing Boston to bring the southpaw back to reality.

Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+146) over Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have the worst offense against left-handed pitchers in the second half of the season. Cleveland has not been great against southpaws all season long (78 wRC+), but the Guards’ lineup has really struggled against lefties recently. Since the all-star break, the Guardians own a 55 wRC+ with a .573 OPS against left-handed pitching which both rank last in baseball. It’s not that Cleveland swings and misses at lefty pitching a lot since they own the 3rd lowest strikeout rate against southpaws in the second half of the season. For some reason, every hitter Cleveland has just prefers right-handed pitching.

On the mound for the Tigers is the lefty Tarik Skubal. He’s coming off a lackluster performance in Boston as he surrendered 5 runs and 7 hits in 5.1 innings to the Red Sox. However, Skubal has quietly been a very underrated pitcher in his short time on the mound this season. The lefty has a 2.70 xERA paired with a 27.7% strikeout rate in 32.1 innings, so he’s exactly the guy that Cleveland does not want to see. Opposing Skubal will be Xzavion Curry, a reliever turned starter since the Guardians have dealt with a lot of injuries to their starting staff this season. In Curry’s last two outings, he’s surrendered 10 hits and 7 runs in 10 innings to the White Sox and Rays. I have very little faith in Curry on the mound or Cleveland’s bats against a lefty, so I’ll back Detroit’s run line to maximize the value.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7.5 (+116)

Lance Lynn’s season has taken a complete 360 since joining the Dodgers. In 21 starts for the White Sox, Lynn owned a 6.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 21 starts. But since being traded to the Dodgers, the veteran owns a 2.00 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP in 3 starts. So, the question becomes, what the heck did the Dodgers give him? Lynn has improved a lot since becoming a Dodger, but he’s also had some of his old tendencies follow him to SoCal. The right-hander has allowed 4 home runs and 4 walks during his 3 starts to the Athletics, Padres and Rockies. And it doesn’t take a lot of digging to know that the A’s and the Rockies have been horrendous this season, so Lynn has had a very easy stretch since joining the Dodgers. That will continue on Thursday against a below-average Brewers lineup.

When thinking about the NL Cy Young race, one has to mention Corbin Burnes. Milwaukee’s ace has been nothing but spectacular this season with a 3.60 ERA and a 3.39 xERA through 24 starts. His success didn’t stop at the all-star break either since he’s limited hitters to a .159 batting average, .191 xBA and 29% hard-hit rate. Burnes also has a 29% strikeout rate during that time, so he’s been at the top of his game in the second half of the season. If Lynn keeps up his unexpected success and Burnes continues to pitch the way he has since Opening Day, this game shouldn’t have more than a few runs.

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