MLB picks 8/20: YRFI & NRFI best bets today | Pickswise

The week in Major League Baseball wraps up with 12 Games on Sunday. It begins at 1:05 pm ET with the Astros and Mariners being showcased on Peacock before the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week features the Phillies and Nationals. In between we have fun matchups like Giants vs Braves, Brewers vs Rangers and Yankees vs Red Sox.

The YRFI/NRFI market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.

Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Sunday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks. 

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Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians: NRFI (-115)

Logan Allen has been outstanding for Cleveland of late. Through 3 August outings he is sporting a 1.59 ERA after most recently pitching 6.0 innings of scoreless baseball against Cincinnati on Tuesday. Allen now faces a Detroit club that is #25 in Major League Baseball in first-inning runs scored (0.43 per Game). Nobody on the Tigers has ever had a plate appearance against Allen, and unfamiliarity generally favors the pitcher. I project the 24-year-old to be borderline dominant on Sunday, especially the first time through the order.

Detroit is countering with Eduardo Rodriguez, who is 8-6 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2023. Rodriguez endured a bit of a hiccup in his most recent start against Boston, but he did not give up a run in the opening frame of that contest and he has otherwise been stellar this month (2 runs combined in his first 2 outings, which spanned 13.0 innings). The Guardians are #23 in baseball in first-inning runs scored and they don’t figure to cross the plate right away at Rodriguez’s expense.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers: YRFI (-111)

As good as the Rangers are (21 games over .500), you would think they do a better job of scoring first-inning runs. However, they are a modest #13 in the majors in that department and they have gone 6 straight games with putting up goose-eggs in the opener. Although Adrian Houser is nothing special for the Brewers, he is a solid starter who should be able to keep the opposition under wraps – at least for a while. Nobody in the Texas lineup has ever gotten more than 1 hit off Houser and the roster is 2-for-11 combined lifetime in this matchup.

Taking the mound for the Rangers on Sunday is Max Scherzer. In 2 of his last 3 starts with the Mets, Scherzer pitched 7.0 innings with no more than 1 run allowed. He has remained in dominant form since being acquired by Texas at the trade deadline. The right-hander has delivered 3 consecutive quality starts for his new team, including 14.0 innings of 1-run baseball over his past 2 appearances. Scherzer has pitched clean opening frames in 3 of his last 4 efforts and I expect him to put up a zero in this one.

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