MLB Best Bets for Monday, June 19 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

Miami will start Bryan Hoeing. He started two games early in the season after being called up in mid-April but has worked out of the bullpen over the last 6 weeks. Hoeing last worked on June 12, so he’s plenty rested, but he may not throw more than 2 or 3 innings. Hoeing has been effective, but opposing hitters are batting .263 against him and his WHIP of 1.38 could play into the Blue Jays’ favor as they have the highest batting average in baseball against righties on the road and they are 3rd in wRC+ and 4th in OPS. I’ll back the Blue Jays to have a lead in the first 5 innings.

The Padres and Giants start a 4-game series in the Bay Area. San Diego starts Michael Wacha, who has been dominant as of late. After a bumpy April, he’s won 5 straight decisions with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .148 against him. Wacha hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 8 starts and has given up no earned runs in 5 of them. Wacha has given up just 2 home runs in his last 49 innings and opposing hitters are batting just .190 the first 2 times through the order. His last 2 road starts were a combined 13 innings and 3 earned runs allowed. The Giants also have the 5th  highest K-rate at home this season.

The Giants will go with a bullpen game and start Ryan Walker. Walker last pitched on Friday and went 1.1 innings, allowing 2 hits and no runs. The Padres have the highest walk rate on the road this season, so it will be critical to avoid them for San Francisco. Walker has given up only 2 free passes in 14.2 innings this season. There is some variance we can’t eliminate because we don’t know who is coming out of the bullpen after Walker, but the Giants bullpen ranks 5th in baseball in WHIP at 1.21 and their 3.77 ERA is 4th-best in the National League. I don’t trust the Padres lineup after the first 4 hitters and if Walker does his job the first time around, I think the Padres damage will be limited in the first 5 innings and Wacha can takes care of the rest.

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The Royals and Tigers start a series at Comerica Park in Detroit. Jordan Lyles will start for Kansas City and Royals have lost all 14 of his starts this season. Lyles has given up fewer than 4 runs in just 2 of his 14 starts this season and his ERA on the road is over 9. I’m not much for jumping into a streak like this when I haven’t caught it early. And I’m not sure I want to back Detroit starter Reese Olson, who’s making only his third start. But let’s look to what makes sense and take the Tigers team total over 4.5 runs.

In games that Lyles has started, opponents have scored at least 5 runs in 10 of 14 starts, while scoring fewer than 4 just once. The Tigers offense isn’t special, but at home this year it’s been slightly above average with a 102 wRC+, which is 2% better than average. Most of their power numbers are in the lower end of the middle-third of teams and their walk rate is 14th in the majors. Detroit is also 11th in hard-hit rate at home this year. I’ll latch onto Lyles’ losing streak and bank that if Kansas City is going to win this game, it will be higher scoring.

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