Mavs vs Thunder Prediction, Picks & Odds - Game 2

Luka Doncic looked more hurt than the world had necessarily realized, and that underscored the Dallas Mavericks’ lackluster showing in Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinal against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Doncic will not get a chance to recover much, not with this series playing every other day through its first five games.

That might make one consider targeting some Doncic props for Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions, perhaps Under his points prop of 31.5, but doubting the Dallas star in the postseason is too bold a choice to be comfortable with.

Rather, a different Mavericks player prop can be looked at as not only likely but also as even more likely if Doncic plays poorly.

Let’s find some value in Daniel Gafford’s rebounds in our free NBA picks, with tip on tonight at 9:30 ET.

Mavericks vs Thunder predictions

My best bet
Daniel Gafford Over 7.5 rebounds (-113 at FanDuel)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Luka Doncic has too long of a track record to assume he will fall short again tonight. His playoff performances are regularly compared to Michael Jordan’s for a reason. That said, Doncic went 6-of-19 on Tuesday night, including 1-of-8 from beyond the arc. If he struggles shooting again, then there will be that many more rebound opportunities.

Gafford turned one of those opportunities into a board and three points in Game 1, one of his five offensive rebounds en route to 11 boards total. He may not replicate that tonight, but he should still be a force on the glass.

Gafford played 29 games with the Mavericks after being acquired in February, averaging 21.5 minutes, 11.2 points and 6.9 rebounds. He moved into the starting lineup in early March, then averaging 24.3 minutes, 12.7 points and 7.1 rebounds in 18 games before a nominal appearance against the Pistons in the season’s penultimate game, as Dallas largely played its reserves.

And now Gafford’s minutes will tick further upward. Maxi Keleber’s shoulder injury creates a 20-minute hole for Mavericks’ big men to fill, give or take. Kleber averaged 22.2 minutes in the first five games of the first round before the injury cut short his time in Game 6.

That, combined with this Thunder series being a better matchup for Gafford, led to him playing 27 minutes in Game 1. That workload alone should propel him past this rebounding prop, but if Doncic struggles again, Gafford could near this number on the offensive end alone.

Mavericks vs Thunder same-game parlay (SGP)

Daniel Gafford Over 7.5 rebounds

Daniel Gafford Over 10.5 points

Josh Giddey Under 8.5 points

+525 at DraftKings

Even if Doncic returns to the form we all love to watch, he will move the ball. That is part of what makes him such a delight. Doncic found Gafford twice in Game 1 for a total of five points, part of what spurred the fifth-year center to 16 points on just 12 shots.

The flipside of that coin is what Gafford went through last series, when he couldn’t match up with the opponent and thus lost playing time. That is Josh Giddey’s plight now. Giddey logged only 17 minutes in Game 1, a pair of better-shooting reserves each playing 23 minutes instead.

Giddey will see less and less playing time moving forward this postseason, as opposing defenses don't mind ignoring him.

Learn how to bet a same-Game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Thunder odds

Mavericks vs Thunder live odds

Get the latest Mavericks vs Thunder NBA playoff odds for Game 2.

Mavericks vs Thunder opening odds

• Spread: Dallas +5 (-105) | Oklahoma City -5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Dallas +174 | Oklahoma City -195
• Over/Under: Over 218.5 (-106) | Under 218.5 (-106)

Mavericks vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

• After the Thunder pulled away in Game 1, they opened as 4-point favorites for tonight, a number that ticked to -5 by Wednesday morning and held steady.
  
  
• The total opened at 220.5 and was quickly bet down to 218.5, finding its floor at 218.
  
  
• As of Thursday morning, 90% of the betting handle at BetMGM was on the Thunder, via 84% of the tickets. Obviously that is a distorted split, one that usually induces a want to fade the public, but Oklahoma City has covered its last four games, as well as eight of its last nine, and Doncic’s knee worry is distinct.

Mavericks vs Thunder trend

The Thunder are 29-15 against the spread at home this season, now including 2-1 ATS in the postseason. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Thunder.

Mavericks vs Thunder game info

Mavericks vs Thunder latest injuries

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